Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Jae Young Lee, Ho Kim, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Michelle L. Bell, Francesco Sera, Eric Lavigne, Rosana Abrutzky, S. Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio Garcia, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni J.K. JaakkolaNiilo R.I. Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick G. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, P. Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado, J. Cruz, Xerxes Seposo, Baltazar Nunes, João Paulo Teixeira, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Christofer Åström, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Martina S. Ragettli, Yue Liang Leon Guo, Bing Yu Chen, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Tran Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Fetemeh Mayvaneh, Ala Overcenco, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo

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28 Citations (Scopus)


An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

Original languageEnglish
Article number105027
Number of pages11
JournalEnvironment International
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2019


  • Climate change
  • Mortality
  • Projection
  • Regional variation
  • Vulnerability

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