Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Jae Young Lee; Ho Kim; Antonio Gasparrini; Ben Armstrong; Michelle L. Bell; Francesco Sera; Eric Lavigne; Rosana Abrutzky; S. Tong; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva; Patricia Matus Correa; Nicolas Valdes Ortega; Haidong Kan; Samuel Osorio Garcia; Jan Kyselý; Aleš Urban; Hans Orru; Ene Indermitte; Jouni J.K. Jaakkola; Niilo R.I. Ryti; Mathilde Pascal; Patrick G. Goodman; Ariana Zeka; P. Michelozzi; Matteo Scortichini; Masahiro Hashizume; Yasushi Honda; Magali Hurtado; J. Cruz; Xerxes Seposo; Baltazar Nunes; João Paulo Teixeira; Aurelio Tobias; Carmen Íñiguez; Bertil Forsberg; Christofer Åström; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera; Martina S. Ragettli; Yue Liang Leon Guo; Bing Yu Chen; Antonella Zanobetti; Joel Schwartz; Tran Ngoc Dang; Dung Do Van; Fetemeh Mayvaneh; Ala Overcenco; Shanshan Li; Yuming Guo

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027

Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Jae Young Lee, Ho Kim, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Michelle L. Bell, Francesco Sera, Eric Lavigne, Rosana Abrutzky, S. Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio Garcia, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni J.K. JaakkolaNiilo R.I. Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick G. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, P. Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado, J. Cruz, Xerxes Seposo, Baltazar Nunes, João Paulo Teixeira, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Christofer Åström, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Martina S. Ragettli, Yue Liang Leon Guo, Bing Yu Chen, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Tran Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Fetemeh Mayvaneh, Ala Overcenco, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo

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Abstract

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO₂ concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

Original language	English
Article number	105027
Number of pages	11
Journal	Environment International
Volume	131
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027
Publication status	Published - Oct 2019

Keywords

Climate change
Mortality
Projection
Regional variation
Vulnerability

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

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Lee, J. Y., Kim, H., Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B., Bell, M. L., Sera, F., Lavigne, E., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. D. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Correa, P. M., Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Garcia, S. O., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E., ... Guo, Y. (2019). Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability. Environment International, 131, Article 105027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027

@article{d84c9643e4eb4e01a82d1e5c9b64cef4,

title = "Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability",

abstract = "An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.",

keywords = "Climate change, Mortality, Projection, Regional variation, Vulnerability",

author = "Lee, {Jae Young} and Ho Kim and Antonio Gasparrini and Ben Armstrong and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Francesco Sera and Eric Lavigne and Rosana Abrutzky and S. Tong and Coelho, {Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio} and Saldiva, {Paulo Hilario Nascimento} and Correa, {Patricia Matus} and Ortega, {Nicolas Valdes} and Haidong Kan and Garcia, {Samuel Osorio} and Jan Kysel{\'y} and Ale{\v s} Urban and Hans Orru and Ene Indermitte and Jaakkola, {Jouni J.K.} and Ryti, {Niilo R.I.} and Mathilde Pascal and Goodman, {Patrick G.} and Ariana Zeka and P. Michelozzi and Matteo Scortichini and Masahiro Hashizume and Yasushi Honda and Magali Hurtado and J. Cruz and Xerxes Seposo and Baltazar Nunes and Teixeira, {Jo{\~a}o Paulo} and Aurelio Tobias and Carmen {\'I}{\~n}iguez and Bertil Forsberg and Christofer {\AA}str{\"o}m and Vicedo-Cabrera, {Ana Maria} and Ragettli, {Martina S.} and Guo, {Yue Liang Leon} and Chen, {Bing Yu} and Antonella Zanobetti and Joel Schwartz and Dang, {Tran Ngoc} and {Do Van}, Dung and Fetemeh Mayvaneh and Ala Overcenco and Shanshan Li and Yuming Guo",

year = "2019",

month = oct,

doi = "10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027",

language = "English",

volume = "131",

journal = "Environment International",

issn = "0160-4120",

publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Lee, JY, Kim, H, Gasparrini, A, Armstrong, B, Bell, ML, Sera, F, Lavigne, E, Abrutzky, R, Tong, S, Coelho, MDSZS, Saldiva, PHN, Correa, PM, Ortega, NV, Kan, H, Garcia, SO, Kyselý, J, Urban, A, Orru, H, Indermitte, E, Jaakkola, JJK, Ryti, NRI, Pascal, M, Goodman, PG, Zeka, A, Michelozzi, P, Scortichini, M, Hashizume, M, Honda, Y, Hurtado, M, Cruz, J, Seposo, X, Nunes, B, Teixeira, JP, Tobias, A, Íñiguez, C, Forsberg, B, Åström, C, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Ragettli, MS, Guo, YLL, Chen, BY, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, J, Dang, TN, Do Van, D, Mayvaneh, F, Overcenco, A, Li, S & Guo, Y 2019, 'Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability', Environment International, vol. 131, 105027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

AU - Lee, Jae Young

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Abrutzky, Rosana

AU - Tong, S.

AU - Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio

AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento

AU - Correa, Patricia Matus

AU - Ortega, Nicolas Valdes

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Garcia, Samuel Osorio

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Orru, Hans

AU - Indermitte, Ene

AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.

AU - Ryti, Niilo R.I.

AU - Pascal, Mathilde

AU - Goodman, Patrick G.

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Michelozzi, P.

AU - Scortichini, Matteo

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Hurtado, Magali

AU - Cruz, J.

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - Nunes, Baltazar

AU - Teixeira, João Paulo

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Íñiguez, Carmen

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Åström, Christofer

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria

AU - Ragettli, Martina S.

AU - Guo, Yue Liang Leon

AU - Chen, Bing Yu

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Schwartz, Joel

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Do Van, Dung

AU - Mayvaneh, Fetemeh

AU - Overcenco, Ala

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Guo, Yuming

PY - 2019/10

Y1 - 2019/10

N2 - An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

AB - An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

KW - Climate change

KW - Mortality

KW - Projection

KW - Regional variation

KW - Vulnerability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85069691979&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027

DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027

M3 - Article

C2 - 31351381

AN - SCOPUS:85069691979

SN - 0160-4120

VL - 131

JO - Environment International

JF - Environment International

M1 - 105027

ER -

Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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