Polarization of forecast densities: A new approach to time series classification

Shen Liu, Elizabeth Ann Maharaj, Brett Andrew Inder

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)


Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the biascorrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)345 - 361
Number of pages17
JournalComputational Statistics and Data Analysis
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Cite this