Peak oil: Challenges and changes for the air transport industry

Douglas Baker, Nicholas J Stevens, Md Kamruzzaman

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (Book)Researchpeer-review


The direct, indirect and induced global economic impact of air transport generated US$539 billion to world gross domestic product in 2012. However, when catalytic tourism impacts are included, the industry is estimated to contribute some US$2.4 trillion and employ 58.1 million people globally (ATAG 2014). From a passenger traffic perspective alone, air transport has grown on average 5.7 percent per year between 2002 and 2012 (ICAO 2013b). Industry forecasts anticipate continued growth, and the passenger traffic forecast in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK)1 “is expected to grow from 5 billion in 2010 to more than 13 billion in 2030, at an average growth rate of 4.9%” (ICAO 2013a: 18). In that “most likely” scenario, international RPKs would grow at 5.1 percent per annum (p.a.) and domestic RPK at 4.4 percent p.a. Even when considering the “pessimistic” scenario, global passenger traffic is forecast to grow at 3.5 percent year on year while, in the same period, actual scheduled passenger traffic is expected to rise from 2.6 billion to 6.1 billion movements worldwide (ICAO 2013b).
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationPlanning After Petroleum
Subtitle of host publicationPreparing Cities for the Age Beyond Oil
EditorsJago Dodson, Neil Sipe, Anitra Nelson
Place of PublicationOxon, UK
Number of pages13
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-315-65071-5
ISBN (Print)978-0-415-50457-7
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes

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