Pathways to a decarbonised power sector in India

Following India’s net-zero commitments at COP-26, this paper evaluates the techno-economic implications of attaining India’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets and subsequently reaching a net-zero power sector by using incremental emission constraints on an hourly-resolved, technology-explicit, TIMES-based cost optimisation modelling framework by incorporating energy storage, green H2 production and thermal power plant’s flexibility. Results indicate that the transition would be significantly capital-intensive and require about two-thirds of the overall cost of transition at an average annual investment of USD 270 billion between 2020 and 2070. This would involve an average addition of about 120 GW of non-fossil-fuel-based (FFB) resources and another 120 GWh of energy storage per annum. The average cost of electricity supply would increase by 40 % at USD 84 per MWh in 2070 from the 2020 level. The overall marginal abatement cost of CO2 emissions with respect to the baseline scenario would be between USD 21 and 34 per tCO2. Such a power sector transition would likely require spending 2.3–1.4 % of India’s annual GDP for the next fifty years.