Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Connor Nolan, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Judy R.M. Allen, Patricia M. Anderson, Julio L. Betancourt, Heather A. Binney, Simon Brewer, Mark B. Bush, Brian M. Chase, Rachid Cheddadi, Morteza Djamali, John Dodson, Mary E. Edwards, William D. Gosling, Simon Haberle, Sara C. Hotchkiss, Brian Huntley, Sarah J. Ivory, A. Peter Kershaw, Soo Hyun Kim & 22 others Claudio Latorre, Michelle Leydet, Anne Marie Lézine, Kam Biu Liu, Yao Liu, A. V. Lozhkin, Matt S. McGlone, Robert A. Marchant, Arata Momohara, Patricio I. Moreno, Stefanie Müller, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Caiming Shen, Janelle Stevenson, Hikaru Takahara, Pavel E. Tarasov, John Tipton, Annie Vincens, Chengyu Weng, Qinghai Xu, Zhuo Zheng, Stephen T. Jackson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

34 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)920-923
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume361
Issue number6405
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Aug 2018

Cite this

Nolan, C., Overpeck, J. T., Allen, J. R. M., Anderson, P. M., Betancourt, J. L., Binney, H. A., ... Jackson, S. T. (2018). Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science, 361(6405), 920-923. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan5360
Nolan, Connor ; Overpeck, Jonathan T. ; Allen, Judy R.M. ; Anderson, Patricia M. ; Betancourt, Julio L. ; Binney, Heather A. ; Brewer, Simon ; Bush, Mark B. ; Chase, Brian M. ; Cheddadi, Rachid ; Djamali, Morteza ; Dodson, John ; Edwards, Mary E. ; Gosling, William D. ; Haberle, Simon ; Hotchkiss, Sara C. ; Huntley, Brian ; Ivory, Sarah J. ; Kershaw, A. Peter ; Kim, Soo Hyun ; Latorre, Claudio ; Leydet, Michelle ; Lézine, Anne Marie ; Liu, Kam Biu ; Liu, Yao ; Lozhkin, A. V. ; McGlone, Matt S. ; Marchant, Robert A. ; Momohara, Arata ; Moreno, Patricio I. ; Müller, Stefanie ; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. ; Shen, Caiming ; Stevenson, Janelle ; Takahara, Hikaru ; Tarasov, Pavel E. ; Tipton, John ; Vincens, Annie ; Weng, Chengyu ; Xu, Qinghai ; Zheng, Zhuo ; Jackson, Stephen T. / Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. In: Science. 2018 ; Vol. 361, No. 6405. pp. 920-923.
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abstract = "Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.",
author = "Connor Nolan and Overpeck, {Jonathan T.} and Allen, {Judy R.M.} and Anderson, {Patricia M.} and Betancourt, {Julio L.} and Binney, {Heather A.} and Simon Brewer and Bush, {Mark B.} and Chase, {Brian M.} and Rachid Cheddadi and Morteza Djamali and John Dodson and Edwards, {Mary E.} and Gosling, {William D.} and Simon Haberle and Hotchkiss, {Sara C.} and Brian Huntley and Ivory, {Sarah J.} and Kershaw, {A. Peter} and Kim, {Soo Hyun} and Claudio Latorre and Michelle Leydet and L{\'e}zine, {Anne Marie} and Liu, {Kam Biu} and Yao Liu and Lozhkin, {A. V.} and McGlone, {Matt S.} and Marchant, {Robert A.} and Arata Momohara and Moreno, {Patricio I.} and Stefanie M{\"u}ller and Otto-Bliesner, {Bette L.} and Caiming Shen and Janelle Stevenson and Hikaru Takahara and Tarasov, {Pavel E.} and John Tipton and Annie Vincens and Chengyu Weng and Qinghai Xu and Zhuo Zheng and Jackson, {Stephen T.}",
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Nolan, C, Overpeck, JT, Allen, JRM, Anderson, PM, Betancourt, JL, Binney, HA, Brewer, S, Bush, MB, Chase, BM, Cheddadi, R, Djamali, M, Dodson, J, Edwards, ME, Gosling, WD, Haberle, S, Hotchkiss, SC, Huntley, B, Ivory, SJ, Kershaw, AP, Kim, SH, Latorre, C, Leydet, M, Lézine, AM, Liu, KB, Liu, Y, Lozhkin, AV, McGlone, MS, Marchant, RA, Momohara, A, Moreno, PI, Müller, S, Otto-Bliesner, BL, Shen, C, Stevenson, J, Takahara, H, Tarasov, PE, Tipton, J, Vincens, A, Weng, C, Xu, Q, Zheng, Z & Jackson, ST 2018, 'Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change', Science, vol. 361, no. 6405, pp. 920-923. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan5360

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. / Nolan, Connor; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Allen, Judy R.M.; Anderson, Patricia M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Binney, Heather A.; Brewer, Simon; Bush, Mark B.; Chase, Brian M.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Djamali, Morteza; Dodson, John; Edwards, Mary E.; Gosling, William D.; Haberle, Simon; Hotchkiss, Sara C.; Huntley, Brian; Ivory, Sarah J.; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kim, Soo Hyun; Latorre, Claudio; Leydet, Michelle; Lézine, Anne Marie; Liu, Kam Biu; Liu, Yao; Lozhkin, A. V.; McGlone, Matt S.; Marchant, Robert A.; Momohara, Arata; Moreno, Patricio I.; Müller, Stefanie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Shen, Caiming; Stevenson, Janelle; Takahara, Hikaru; Tarasov, Pavel E.; Tipton, John; Vincens, Annie; Weng, Chengyu; Xu, Qinghai; Zheng, Zhuo; Jackson, Stephen T.

In: Science, Vol. 361, No. 6405, 31.08.2018, p. 920-923.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

AU - Nolan, Connor

AU - Overpeck, Jonathan T.

AU - Allen, Judy R.M.

AU - Anderson, Patricia M.

AU - Betancourt, Julio L.

AU - Binney, Heather A.

AU - Brewer, Simon

AU - Bush, Mark B.

AU - Chase, Brian M.

AU - Cheddadi, Rachid

AU - Djamali, Morteza

AU - Dodson, John

AU - Edwards, Mary E.

AU - Gosling, William D.

AU - Haberle, Simon

AU - Hotchkiss, Sara C.

AU - Huntley, Brian

AU - Ivory, Sarah J.

AU - Kershaw, A. Peter

AU - Kim, Soo Hyun

AU - Latorre, Claudio

AU - Leydet, Michelle

AU - Lézine, Anne Marie

AU - Liu, Kam Biu

AU - Liu, Yao

AU - Lozhkin, A. V.

AU - McGlone, Matt S.

AU - Marchant, Robert A.

AU - Momohara, Arata

AU - Moreno, Patricio I.

AU - Müller, Stefanie

AU - Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

AU - Shen, Caiming

AU - Stevenson, Janelle

AU - Takahara, Hikaru

AU - Tarasov, Pavel E.

AU - Tipton, John

AU - Vincens, Annie

AU - Weng, Chengyu

AU - Xu, Qinghai

AU - Zheng, Zhuo

AU - Jackson, Stephen T.

PY - 2018/8/31

Y1 - 2018/8/31

N2 - Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

AB - Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85052620527&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/science.aan5360

DO - 10.1126/science.aan5360

M3 - Article

VL - 361

SP - 920

EP - 923

JO - Science

JF - Science

SN - 0036-8075

IS - 6405

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Nolan C, Overpeck JT, Allen JRM, Anderson PM, Betancourt JL, Binney HA et al. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science. 2018 Aug 31;361(6405):920-923. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan5360