Optimizing Investments in the National HIV responses of Indonesia and Thailand: a report for World Health Organization South-East Asia regional office

Mathematical modelling was conducted to inform development of the new SEAR Health Sector Strategy on HIV. For this purpose scenario analyses were designed to identify the optimal allocation of funding required to minimize cumulative new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths over the period 2015 to 2020 under latest available and increased budgets. The findings are summarized briefly here, subdivided by country, and described in more detail below.

Indonesia
Scenario 1: minimize cumulative new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths with funding at 2012 levels (last publicly available total HIV budget) • Prevention programs for key populations such as NSP, MSM and Transgender programs and FSW programs should receive an increased allocation under optimized spending. • ART should also be scaled up to reduce AIDS-related deaths.
Scenario 2: minimize cumulative new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths with 20% and 50% increased funding • ART should be consistently scaled up with increased funding. • Spending on prevention in key populations, FSW and MSM in particular, should be gradually increased with more available funding.
Thailand
Scenario 1: minimize cumulative new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths with funding at 2011 levels (last publicly available total HIV budget) • ART should be scaled up to reduce AIDS-related deaths. • MSM programs should receive most of the remaining non-fixed funding.
Scenario 2: minimize cumulative new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths with 20% and 50% increased funding • ART should be scaled up with increased total funding • PWID and MSM programs should also gradually receive more funding • Spending on HIV testing and counselling should increase as more funding becomes available