TY - JOUR
T1 - Optimising renewable generation configurations of off-grid green ammonia production systems considering Haber-Bosch flexibility
AU - Wang, Changlong
AU - Walsh, Stuart D.C.
AU - Longden, Thomas
AU - Palmer, Graham
AU - Lutalo, Israel
AU - Dargaville, Roger
N1 - Funding Information:
Bilateral ammonia trade agreements and joint efforts in project development have started to emerge between countries and major international companies. The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry [19] began promoting a new Road Map for Fuel Ammonia in early 2021. It focuses on co-burning ammonia in thermal power plants and use as a fuel for shipping. According to Stocks et al. [20] , co-firing green ammonia produced in Australia in coal plants in Japan could reduce emissions by 43 Mt per year in 2030. Japan aims to import 3 million tonnes of green ammonia annually by 2030, and 30 million tonnes annually by 2050. In early 2022, Australia signed a bilateral hydrogen and ammonia trade agreement with Japan aiming to ship ammonia from Australia starting from the 2030s [21] . At the same time, new partnerships have also been formed with Australia’s European counterparts. The Rocky Mountain Institute has released a new paper outlining a timeline for the EU to begin importing renewable energy in the form of hydrogen or ammonia as early as 2024 [22] . The report states imports of renewable ammonia would satisfy urgent industrial needs, radically altering the energy consumption profile of emission-intensive EU industry [22] . The promotion of a two-way trade between Australia and the EU has been supported by state governments and industries. The Queensland Government has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Port of Rotterdam to collaborate on opportunities to develop a hydrogen export supply chain [23] . In March 2022, Fortescue Future Industries and Germany’s E.ON signed a major hydrogen supply and distribution deal [24] . By 2030, Fortescue aims to provide Europe with 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen per year, which will be distributed by E.ON [25] .
Funding Information:
As of 2022, most Australian green ammonia projects were either in pre-feasibility or pilot stage and are considered”pre-commercial”. In the early phase of investments, developers are mainly bluechip corporations or otherwise supported by governments through project funding. Early ammonia project implementation tends to favour grid connection with a renewable power purchase agreement (PPA). Grid-connected projects include GERI [30] , QNP [31] , DNM [32] , H2TAS [33] , H2U [34] .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s)
PY - 2023/3/15
Y1 - 2023/3/15
N2 - Green ammonia has received increasing interest for its potential as an energy carrier in the international trade of renewable power. This paper considers the factors that contribute to producing cost-competitive green ammonia from an exporter's perspective. These factors include renewable resource quality across potential sites, operating modes for off-grid plants, and seasonal complementarity with trade buyers. The study applies a mixed-integer programming model and uses Australia as a case study because of its excellent solar and wind resources, and the potential for synergy between Southern Hemisphere supply and Northern Hemisphere demand. Although renewable resources are unevenly distributed across Australia and present distinct diurnal and seasonal variability, modelling shows that most of the pre-identified hydrogen hubs in each state and territory of Australia can produce cost-competitive green ammonia providing the electrolysis and Haber-Bosch processes are partially flexible to cope with the variability of renewables. Flexible operation reduces energy curtailment and leads to lower storage capacity requirements using batteries or hydrogen storage, which would otherwise increase system costs. In addition, an optimised combination of wind and solar can reduce the magnitude of storage required. Providing that a partially flexible Haber Bosch plant is commercially available, the modelling shows a levelised cost of ammonia (LCOA) of AU$756/tonne and AU$659/tonne in 2025 and 2030, respectively. Based on these results, green ammonia would be cost-competitive with grey ammonia in 2030, given a feedstock natural gas price higher than AU$14/MBtu. For green ammonia to be cost-competitive with grey ammonia, assuming a lower gas price of AU$6/MBtu, a carbon price would need to be in place of at least AU$123/tonne. Given that there is a greater demand for energy in winter concurrent with lower solar power production, there may be opportunities for solar-based Southern Hemisphere suppliers to supply the major industrial regions, most of which are located in the Northern Hemisphere.
AB - Green ammonia has received increasing interest for its potential as an energy carrier in the international trade of renewable power. This paper considers the factors that contribute to producing cost-competitive green ammonia from an exporter's perspective. These factors include renewable resource quality across potential sites, operating modes for off-grid plants, and seasonal complementarity with trade buyers. The study applies a mixed-integer programming model and uses Australia as a case study because of its excellent solar and wind resources, and the potential for synergy between Southern Hemisphere supply and Northern Hemisphere demand. Although renewable resources are unevenly distributed across Australia and present distinct diurnal and seasonal variability, modelling shows that most of the pre-identified hydrogen hubs in each state and territory of Australia can produce cost-competitive green ammonia providing the electrolysis and Haber-Bosch processes are partially flexible to cope with the variability of renewables. Flexible operation reduces energy curtailment and leads to lower storage capacity requirements using batteries or hydrogen storage, which would otherwise increase system costs. In addition, an optimised combination of wind and solar can reduce the magnitude of storage required. Providing that a partially flexible Haber Bosch plant is commercially available, the modelling shows a levelised cost of ammonia (LCOA) of AU$756/tonne and AU$659/tonne in 2025 and 2030, respectively. Based on these results, green ammonia would be cost-competitive with grey ammonia in 2030, given a feedstock natural gas price higher than AU$14/MBtu. For green ammonia to be cost-competitive with grey ammonia, assuming a lower gas price of AU$6/MBtu, a carbon price would need to be in place of at least AU$123/tonne. Given that there is a greater demand for energy in winter concurrent with lower solar power production, there may be opportunities for solar-based Southern Hemisphere suppliers to supply the major industrial regions, most of which are located in the Northern Hemisphere.
KW - Ammonia
KW - Energy storage
KW - Renewable/green hydrogen
KW - Techno-economic modelling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85148378023&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.enconman.2023.116790
DO - 10.1016/j.enconman.2023.116790
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85148378023
SN - 0196-8904
VL - 280
JO - Energy Conversion and Management
JF - Energy Conversion and Management
M1 - 116790
ER -
