Occupational mobility and automation: a data-driven network model

R. Maria Del Rio-Chanona, Penny Mealy, Mariano Beguerisse-Díaz, François Lafond, J. Doyne Farmer

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    The potential impact of automation on the labour market is a topic that has generated significant interest and concern amongst scholars, policymakers and the broader public. A number of studies have estimated occupation-specific risk profiles by examining how suitable associated skills and tasks are for automation. However, little work has sought to take a more holistic view on the process of labour reallocation and how employment prospects are impacted as displaced workers transition into new jobs. In this article, we develop a data-driven model to analyse how workers move through an empirically derived occupational mobility network in response to automation scenarios. At a macro level, our model reproduces the Beveridge curve, a key stylized fact in the labour market. At a micro level, our model provides occupation-specific estimates of changes in short and long-term unemployment corresponding to specific automation shocks. We find that the network structure plays an important role in determining unemployment levels, with occupations in particular areas of the network having few job transition opportunities. In an automation scenario where low wage occupations are more likely to be automated than high wage occupations, the network effects are also more likely to increase the long-term unemployment of low-wage occupations.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article number20200898
    Number of pages12
    JournalJournal of the Royal Society Interface
    Volume18
    Issue number174
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jan 2021

    Keywords

    • agent-based model
    • automation
    • labour market
    • networks
    • unemployment

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