Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)

Md Anarul Haque Mondol; Xuan Zhu; David Dunkerley; Benjamin J. Henley

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107001

Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)

Md Anarul Haque Mondol
, Xuan Zhu
, David Dunkerley
, Benjamin J. Henley

School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

66 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Countries dependent on small-scale agriculture, such as Bangladesh, can be vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability. Changes in the occurrence and severity of drought are an important part of this issue and form the subject of this paper. We examined the characteristics of meteorological drought occurrence and severity using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), including the drought events, drought chronology, onset and ending of drought, consecutive drought spells, drought frequency, intensity and severity, using North-Bengal of Bangladesh as a case study. The rainfall and temperature dataset of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the study region throughout 1979–2018 is utilised. The trends of drought are detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen Slope estimation. We evaluated the performance of EDI using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), historical drought records and rice production. This study finds that seasonal and annual droughts have become more frequent over the period studied in all seasons except the pre-monsoon. In addition, the largest decrease in seasonal EDI is found in the monsoon, both in the Teesta floodplain and Barind tract regions. In the decades prior to the late 2000s, a drought spell typically starts between March and May (±15 days) and ends with the monsoonal rainfall in June/July. In the years since the late 2000s, monsoon and post-monsoon droughts spells have significantly increased. Overall, the peak intensity of droughts are higher in the Barind tract than in the Teesta floodplain, and the frequency and severity of moderate to severe drought are increasing significantly in the Barind tract. The drought frequency has increased by at least 10% in North Bengal of Bangladesh over the periods of 1979–2018. Though EDI is strongly correlated with the SPI index, our analysis shows that, surprisingly, rice production is actually decoupled from meteorological drought (as identified by the EDI and SPI). Hence, this research suggests that there are other significant influences on rice yield beyond meteorological drivers. This could include effects from differing irrigation infrastructure, technology and management strategies in the study regions. Challenges to agricultural production may be exacerbated in coming years, should the identified increasing meteorological drought trends continue. Data Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author.

Original language	English
Article number	107001
Number of pages	18
Journal	Agricultural Water Management
Volume	255
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107001
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2021

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 2 Zero Hunger
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Agricultural loss
Bangladesh
Barind tract
Drought occurrence and severity
EDI
Meteorological drought
Onset and ending
Teesta floodplain

Access to Document

10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107001

Cite this

@article{e740e496f0464ee1b6e633baf0e6b4d0,

title = "Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)",

abstract = "Countries dependent on small-scale agriculture, such as Bangladesh, can be vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability. Changes in the occurrence and severity of drought are an important part of this issue and form the subject of this paper. We examined the characteristics of meteorological drought occurrence and severity using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), including the drought events, drought chronology, onset and ending of drought, consecutive drought spells, drought frequency, intensity and severity, using North-Bengal of Bangladesh as a case study. The rainfall and temperature dataset of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the study region throughout 1979–2018 is utilised. The trends of drought are detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen Slope estimation. We evaluated the performance of EDI using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), historical drought records and rice production. This study finds that seasonal and annual droughts have become more frequent over the period studied in all seasons except the pre-monsoon. In addition, the largest decrease in seasonal EDI is found in the monsoon, both in the Teesta floodplain and Barind tract regions. In the decades prior to the late 2000s, a drought spell typically starts between March and May (±15 days) and ends with the monsoonal rainfall in June/July. In the years since the late 2000s, monsoon and post-monsoon droughts spells have significantly increased. Overall, the peak intensity of droughts are higher in the Barind tract than in the Teesta floodplain, and the frequency and severity of moderate to severe drought are increasing significantly in the Barind tract. The drought frequency has increased by at least 10\% in North Bengal of Bangladesh over the periods of 1979–2018. Though EDI is strongly correlated with the SPI index, our analysis shows that, surprisingly, rice production is actually decoupled from meteorological drought (as identified by the EDI and SPI). Hence, this research suggests that there are other significant influences on rice yield beyond meteorological drivers. This could include effects from differing irrigation infrastructure, technology and management strategies in the study regions. Challenges to agricultural production may be exacerbated in coming years, should the identified increasing meteorological drought trends continue. Data Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author.",

keywords = "Agricultural loss, Bangladesh, Barind tract, Drought occurrence and severity, EDI, Meteorological drought, Onset and ending, Teesta floodplain",

author = "Mondol, \{Md Anarul Haque\} and Xuan Zhu and David Dunkerley and Henley, \{Benjamin J.\}",

note = "Funding Information: We gratefully acknowledge the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Dhaka, Bangladesh and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Dhaka, Bangladesh, for supplying relevant data for this research. Md Anarul Haque Mondol is grateful to the Bangabandhu Science and Technology Fellowship Trust, Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh and Faculty of Science, Monash University, Clayton, Australia for providing the Ph.D. scholarship and relevent expenses during the research. Funding Information: We gratefully acknowledge the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Dhaka, Bangladesh and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Dhaka, Bangladesh, for supplying relevant data for this research. Md Anarul Haque Mondol is grateful to the Bangabandhu Science and Technology Fellowship Trust , Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of the People{\textquoteright}s Republic of Bangladesh and Faculty of Science, Monash University, Clayton, Australia for providing the Ph.D. scholarship and relevent expenses during the research. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 Elsevier B.V. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

year = "2021",

month = sep,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107001",

language = "English",

volume = "255",

journal = "Agricultural Water Management",

issn = "0378-3774",

publisher = "Elsevier BV",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)

AU - Mondol, Md Anarul Haque

AU - Zhu, Xuan

AU - Dunkerley, David

AU - Henley, Benjamin J.

N1 - Funding Information: We gratefully acknowledge the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Dhaka, Bangladesh and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Dhaka, Bangladesh, for supplying relevant data for this research. Md Anarul Haque Mondol is grateful to the Bangabandhu Science and Technology Fellowship Trust, Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh and Faculty of Science, Monash University, Clayton, Australia for providing the Ph.D. scholarship and relevent expenses during the research. Funding Information: We gratefully acknowledge the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Dhaka, Bangladesh and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Dhaka, Bangladesh, for supplying relevant data for this research. Md Anarul Haque Mondol is grateful to the Bangabandhu Science and Technology Fellowship Trust , Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh and Faculty of Science, Monash University, Clayton, Australia for providing the Ph.D. scholarship and relevent expenses during the research. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Elsevier B.V. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2021/9/1

Y1 - 2021/9/1

N2 - Countries dependent on small-scale agriculture, such as Bangladesh, can be vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability. Changes in the occurrence and severity of drought are an important part of this issue and form the subject of this paper. We examined the characteristics of meteorological drought occurrence and severity using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), including the drought events, drought chronology, onset and ending of drought, consecutive drought spells, drought frequency, intensity and severity, using North-Bengal of Bangladesh as a case study. The rainfall and temperature dataset of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the study region throughout 1979–2018 is utilised. The trends of drought are detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen Slope estimation. We evaluated the performance of EDI using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), historical drought records and rice production. This study finds that seasonal and annual droughts have become more frequent over the period studied in all seasons except the pre-monsoon. In addition, the largest decrease in seasonal EDI is found in the monsoon, both in the Teesta floodplain and Barind tract regions. In the decades prior to the late 2000s, a drought spell typically starts between March and May (±15 days) and ends with the monsoonal rainfall in June/July. In the years since the late 2000s, monsoon and post-monsoon droughts spells have significantly increased. Overall, the peak intensity of droughts are higher in the Barind tract than in the Teesta floodplain, and the frequency and severity of moderate to severe drought are increasing significantly in the Barind tract. The drought frequency has increased by at least 10% in North Bengal of Bangladesh over the periods of 1979–2018. Though EDI is strongly correlated with the SPI index, our analysis shows that, surprisingly, rice production is actually decoupled from meteorological drought (as identified by the EDI and SPI). Hence, this research suggests that there are other significant influences on rice yield beyond meteorological drivers. This could include effects from differing irrigation infrastructure, technology and management strategies in the study regions. Challenges to agricultural production may be exacerbated in coming years, should the identified increasing meteorological drought trends continue. Data Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author.

AB - Countries dependent on small-scale agriculture, such as Bangladesh, can be vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability. Changes in the occurrence and severity of drought are an important part of this issue and form the subject of this paper. We examined the characteristics of meteorological drought occurrence and severity using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), including the drought events, drought chronology, onset and ending of drought, consecutive drought spells, drought frequency, intensity and severity, using North-Bengal of Bangladesh as a case study. The rainfall and temperature dataset of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the study region throughout 1979–2018 is utilised. The trends of drought are detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen Slope estimation. We evaluated the performance of EDI using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), historical drought records and rice production. This study finds that seasonal and annual droughts have become more frequent over the period studied in all seasons except the pre-monsoon. In addition, the largest decrease in seasonal EDI is found in the monsoon, both in the Teesta floodplain and Barind tract regions. In the decades prior to the late 2000s, a drought spell typically starts between March and May (±15 days) and ends with the monsoonal rainfall in June/July. In the years since the late 2000s, monsoon and post-monsoon droughts spells have significantly increased. Overall, the peak intensity of droughts are higher in the Barind tract than in the Teesta floodplain, and the frequency and severity of moderate to severe drought are increasing significantly in the Barind tract. The drought frequency has increased by at least 10% in North Bengal of Bangladesh over the periods of 1979–2018. Though EDI is strongly correlated with the SPI index, our analysis shows that, surprisingly, rice production is actually decoupled from meteorological drought (as identified by the EDI and SPI). Hence, this research suggests that there are other significant influences on rice yield beyond meteorological drivers. This could include effects from differing irrigation infrastructure, technology and management strategies in the study regions. Challenges to agricultural production may be exacerbated in coming years, should the identified increasing meteorological drought trends continue. Data Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author.

KW - Agricultural loss

KW - Bangladesh

KW - Barind tract

KW - Drought occurrence and severity

KW - EDI

KW - Meteorological drought

KW - Onset and ending

KW - Teesta floodplain

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85108256963

U2 - 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107001

DO - 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107001

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85108256963

SN - 0378-3774

VL - 255

JO - Agricultural Water Management

JF - Agricultural Water Management

M1 - 107001

ER -

Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Cite this

Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Projects

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Cite this