@article{21dac22c2db140038ad17a0679f1828e,
title = "Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling",
abstract = "Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.",
author = "E. Manzini and Karpechko, {A. Yu} and J. Anstey and Baldwin, {M. P.} and Black, {R. X.} and C. Cagnazzo and N. Calvo and A. Charlton-Perez and B. Christiansen and Paolo Davini and E. Gerber and M. Giorgetta and L. Gray and Hardiman, {S. C.} and Lee, {Y. Y.} and Marsh, {D. R.} and McDaniel, {B. A.} and A. Purich and Scaife, {A. A.} and D. Shindell and Son, {S. W.} and S. Watanabe and G. Zappa",
note = "Funding Information: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme?s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy?s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We are grateful to Thomas Birner and Lorenzo Polvani for providing comments to an earlier version of the manuscript. Evgeny Volodin, John Wilson, and Seiji Yukimoto are kindly acknowledged to have provided the residual vertical velocity diagnostic. We thank Judith Perlwitz, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Hauke Schmidt, and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive reviews and suggestions. E.M. and S.C.H. were partially supported by the EC COMBINE project (GA 226520). A.Y.K. was funded by the Academy of Finland, grant 259537. A.A.S. and S.C. H. were supported by the Joint DECC/ Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). M.P.B. was funded by NSF under the U.S. CLIVAR program and the Office of Polar Programs. The research efforts of R.X.B., B.A.M., and Y.-Y.L. were supported by the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy and by the National Science Foundation grant, ARC-1107384. J.A. and L.J.G. were funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS). S.W.S. was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant CATER 2012-3065. E.P.G. was supported by the U.S. NSF, grant AGS-1264195. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. N.C. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCINN) through the MATRES (CGL2012-34221). G.Z. was funded by NERC under the TEMPEST project. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2014. American Geophysical Union. All rights reserved.",
year = "2014",
month = jul,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1002/2013JD021403",
language = "English",
volume = "119",
pages = "7979--7998",
journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research",
issn = "0148-0227",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "13",
}