Abstract
Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/ multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germanỳs export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 37-55 |
| Number of pages | 19 |
| Journal | Economic Systems Research |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2007 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Econometric models
- Global modelling
- Policy simulation
Cite this
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National economic policy simulations with global interdependencies : a sensitivity analysis for Germany. / Meyer, Bernd; Lutz, Christian; Schnur, Peter; Zika, Gerd.
In: Economic Systems Research, Vol. 19, No. 1, 2007, p. 37-55.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - National economic policy simulations with global interdependencies
T2 - a sensitivity analysis for Germany
AU - Meyer, Bernd
AU - Lutz, Christian
AU - Schnur, Peter
AU - Zika, Gerd
PY - 2007
Y1 - 2007
N2 - Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/ multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germanỳs export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.
AB - Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/ multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germanỳs export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.
KW - Econometric models
KW - Global modelling
KW - Policy simulation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34249305193&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/09535310601164765
DO - 10.1080/09535310601164765
M3 - Article
VL - 19
SP - 37
EP - 55
JO - Economic Systems Research
JF - Economic Systems Research
SN - 0953-5314
IS - 1
ER -