Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

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4 Citations (Scopus)


Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659-671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature-related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better-fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)824-841
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2017


  • Climate change (temperature)
  • Forecasting
  • Lee-Carter model
  • Longevity
  • Pricing life annuity
  • United Kingdom population

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