Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries

Malgorzata Seklecka, Norazliani Md Lazam, Athanasios Pantelous, Colin O'Hare

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12 Citations (Scopus)


Socioeconomic status is commonly conceptualized as the social standing or well-being of an individual or society. Higher socioeconomic status has long been identified as a contributing factor for mortality improvement. This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations (having gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy) on mortality for the nine most populous eurozone countries. Based on the statistical analysis between the time-dependent indicator of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87(419), 659–671) model and GDP, and adaptation of the good features of the O'Hare and Li (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2012, 50, 12–25) model, a new mortality model including this additional economic-related factor is proposed. Results for male and female from ages between 0 and 89, and similar for unisex data, are provided. This new model shows a better fitting and more plausible forecast among a significant number of eurozone countries. An in-depth analysis of our findings is provided to give a better understanding of the relationship between mortality and GDP fluctuations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)39-62
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019


  • economic growth (GDP)
  • eurozone countries
  • forecasting
  • Lee–Carter (LC) model
  • longevity
  • O'Hare–Li (OL) model

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