Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes

A multi-country study

Whanhee Lee, Michelle L. Bell, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben G. Armstrong, Francesco Sera, Sunghee Hwang, Eric Lavigne, Antonella Zanobetti, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Samuel Osorio, Aurelio Tobias, Ariana Zeka, Patrick G. Goodman, Bertil Forsberg, Joacim Rocklöv, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Yue Liang Leon Guo, Xerxes Seposo & 5 others Do Van Dung, Tran Ngoc Dang, Shilu Tong, Yuming Guo, Ho Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3–2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1–2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4–2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)123-130
Number of pages8
JournalEnvironment International
Volume110
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018

Keywords

  • Attributable mortality risk fraction
  • Climate change
  • Diurnal temperature range
  • Time-varying effect

Cite this

Lee, W., Bell, M. L., Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B. G., Sera, F., Hwang, S., ... Kim, H. (2018). Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes: A multi-country study. Environment International, 110, 123-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.10.018
Lee, Whanhee ; Bell, Michelle L. ; Gasparrini, Antonio ; Armstrong, Ben G. ; Sera, Francesco ; Hwang, Sunghee ; Lavigne, Eric ; Zanobetti, Antonella ; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio ; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento ; Osorio, Samuel ; Tobias, Aurelio ; Zeka, Ariana ; Goodman, Patrick G. ; Forsberg, Bertil ; Rocklöv, Joacim ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Honda, Yasushi ; Guo, Yue Liang Leon ; Seposo, Xerxes ; Van Dung, Do ; Dang, Tran Ngoc ; Tong, Shilu ; Guo, Yuming ; Kim, Ho. / Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes : A multi-country study. In: Environment International. 2018 ; Vol. 110. pp. 123-130.
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abstract = "Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5{\%} (95{\%} eCI: 2.3–2.7{\%}) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4{\%} (2.1–2.7{\%}) to 2.7{\%} (2.4–2.9{\%}) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.",
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author = "Whanhee Lee and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Antonio Gasparrini and Armstrong, {Ben G.} and Francesco Sera and Sunghee Hwang and Eric Lavigne and Antonella Zanobetti and Coelho, {Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio} and Saldiva, {Paulo Hilario Nascimento} and Samuel Osorio and Aurelio Tobias and Ariana Zeka and Goodman, {Patrick G.} and Bertil Forsberg and Joacim Rockl{\"o}v and Masahiro Hashizume and Yasushi Honda and Guo, {Yue Liang Leon} and Xerxes Seposo and {Van Dung}, Do and Dang, {Tran Ngoc} and Shilu Tong and Yuming Guo and Ho Kim",
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Lee, W, Bell, ML, Gasparrini, A, Armstrong, BG, Sera, F, Hwang, S, Lavigne, E, Zanobetti, A, Coelho, MDSZS, Saldiva, PHN, Osorio, S, Tobias, A, Zeka, A, Goodman, PG, Forsberg, B, Rocklöv, J, Hashizume, M, Honda, Y, Guo, YLL, Seposo, X, Van Dung, D, Dang, TN, Tong, S, Guo, Y & Kim, H 2018, 'Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes: A multi-country study', Environment International, vol. 110, pp. 123-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.10.018

Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes : A multi-country study. / Lee, Whanhee; Bell, Michelle L.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben G.; Sera, Francesco; Hwang, Sunghee; Lavigne, Eric; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Osorio, Samuel; Tobias, Aurelio; Zeka, Ariana; Goodman, Patrick G.; Forsberg, Bertil; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Liang Leon; Seposo, Xerxes; Van Dung, Do; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Tong, Shilu; Guo, Yuming; Kim, Ho.

In: Environment International, Vol. 110, 01.01.2018, p. 123-130.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes

T2 - A multi-country study

AU - Lee, Whanhee

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Armstrong, Ben G.

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Hwang, Sunghee

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio

AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento

AU - Osorio, Samuel

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Goodman, Patrick G.

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Rocklöv, Joacim

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Guo, Yue Liang Leon

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - Van Dung, Do

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Kim, Ho

PY - 2018/1/1

Y1 - 2018/1/1

N2 - Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3–2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1–2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4–2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.

AB - Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3–2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1–2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4–2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.

KW - Attributable mortality risk fraction

KW - Climate change

KW - Diurnal temperature range

KW - Time-varying effect

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