Models as scenario tools for developing robust transformative plans

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Abstract

This chapter focuses on long-term planning under uncertainty as a practical context within which transition modelling could be used. It explains how models could contribute to processes of long-term planning, to inform policy decisions and to facilitate stakeholder engagement. The chapter conceptualises transition models as normative and explorative scenario tools. The normative aspect helps with envisioning a desired future and the pathways to realisation, while the explorative aspect helps with testing the robustness of those pathways against deeply uncertain futures.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationModelling Transitions
Subtitle of host publicationVirtues, Vices, Visions of the Future
EditorsEnayat A. Moallemi, Fjalar J. de Haan
Place of PublicationAbingdon UK
PublisherRoutledge
Chapter10
Pages165-181
Number of pages17
Edition1st
ISBN (Electronic)9780429056574
ISBN (Print)9780367174064
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Publication series

NameRoutledge Studies in Sustainability Transitions

Cite this

Malekpour , S. (2020). Models as scenario tools for developing robust transformative plans. In E. A. Moallemi, & F. J. de Haan (Eds.), Modelling Transitions: Virtues, Vices, Visions of the Future (1st ed., pp. 165-181). (Routledge Studies in Sustainability Transitions). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429056574-10