Modelling the epidemiological impact of scaling up HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment in China

Lei Zhang, Richard T. Gray, David Wilson

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22 Citations (Scopus)


Background: The HIV epidemic in China has been increasing. In response, a 5-year action plan in China has prioritised the scale-up of HIV testing and treatment. 

Methods: We use a mathematical model to reproduce HIV epidemic trends in China and to forecast epidemic trends according to current conditions or increases in the rate of HIV testing or roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Results: We show that the epidemic in China could be expected to experience a 2.5-fold expansion over the next 5 years such that ∼1.8 million people will be infected with HIV in China by 2015. However, increasing testing and treatment rates can have substantial epidemiological benefits. For example, a four-fold increase in testing rates may avert more than 42000 HIV infections and 11000 deaths over the next 5 years. A 10-fold increase in the treatment rate could decrease the number of HIV-related deaths by 58% and the number of new infections by one-quarter by 2015. 

Conclusions: Increasing HIV testing and treatment are important public health strategies for prevention.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)261-271
Number of pages11
JournalSexual Health
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes


  • epidemiology
  • forecasting
  • mathematical modelling
  • prevalence

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