Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City: A case study

Aditya A. Paranjape; Souvik Barat; Anwesha Basu; Rohan Salvi; Supratim Ghosh; Vinay Kulkarni

doi:10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015485

Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City: A case study

Aditya A. Paranjape, Souvik Barat, Anwesha Basu, Rohan Salvi, Supratim Ghosh, Vinay Kulkarni

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Paper › Other

Abstract

We present a case study on modeling and predicting the course of Covid-19 in the Indian city of Pune. The results presented in this paper are concerned primarily with the wave of infections triggered by the Delta variant during the period between February and June 2021. Our work demonstrates the necessity for bringing together compartmental stock-and-flow and agent-based models and the limitations of each approach when used individually. Some of the work presented here was carried out in the process of advising the local city administration and reflects the challenges associated with employing these models in a real-world environment with its uncertainties and time pressures. Our experience, described in the paper, also highlights the risks associated with forecasting the course of an epidemic with evolving variants.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022
Editors	B. Feng, G. Pedrielli, Y. Peng, S. Shashaani, E. Song, C.G. Corlu, L.H. Lee, E.P. Chew, T. Roeder, P. Lendermann
Publisher	IEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages	593-604
Number of pages	12
ISBN (Electronic)	9798350309713
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015485
Publication status	Published - 2022
Externally published	Yes
Event	Winter Simulation Conference 2022 - Guilin, China Duration: 11 Dec 2022 → 14 Dec 2022 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/10015196/proceeding (Proceedings) https://meetings.informs.org/wordpress/wsc2022/ (Website)

Publication series

Name	Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
Publisher	IEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Volume	2022-December
ISSN (Print)	0891-7736

Conference

Conference	Winter Simulation Conference 2022
Abbreviated title	WSC 2022
Country/Territory	China
City	Guilin
Period	11/12/22 → 14/12/22
Internet address	https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/10015196/proceeding (Proceedings) https://meetings.informs.org/wordpress/wsc2022/ (Website)

Access to Document

10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015485

Cite this

Paranjape, A. A., Barat, S., Basu, A., Salvi, R., Ghosh, S., & Kulkarni, V. (2022). Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City: A case study. In B. Feng, G. Pedrielli, Y. Peng, S. Shashaani, E. Song, C. G. Corlu, L. H. Lee, E. P. Chew, T. Roeder, & P. Lendermann (Eds.), Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022 (pp. 593-604). (Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference; Vol. 2022-December). IEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015485

Paranjape, Aditya A. ; Barat, Souvik ; Basu, Anwesha et al. / Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City : A case study. Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022. editor / B. Feng ; G. Pedrielli ; Y. Peng ; S. Shashaani ; E. Song ; C.G. Corlu ; L.H. Lee ; E.P. Chew ; T. Roeder ; P. Lendermann. IEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2022. pp. 593-604 (Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference).

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title = "Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City: A case study",

abstract = "We present a case study on modeling and predicting the course of Covid-19 in the Indian city of Pune. The results presented in this paper are concerned primarily with the wave of infections triggered by the Delta variant during the period between February and June 2021. Our work demonstrates the necessity for bringing together compartmental stock-and-flow and agent-based models and the limitations of each approach when used individually. Some of the work presented here was carried out in the process of advising the local city administration and reflects the challenges associated with employing these models in a real-world environment with its uncertainties and time pressures. Our experience, described in the paper, also highlights the risks associated with forecasting the course of an epidemic with evolving variants.",

author = "Paranjape, {Aditya A.} and Souvik Barat and Anwesha Basu and Rohan Salvi and Supratim Ghosh and Vinay Kulkarni",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 IEEE.; Winter Simulation Conference 2022, WSC 2022 ; Conference date: 11-12-2022 Through 14-12-2022",

year = "2022",

doi = "10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015485",

language = "English",

series = "Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference",

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pages = "593--604",

editor = "B. Feng and G. Pedrielli and Y. Peng and S. Shashaani and E. Song and C.G. Corlu and L.H. Lee and E.P. Chew and T. Roeder and P. Lendermann",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022",

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Paranjape, AA, Barat, S, Basu, A, Salvi, R, Ghosh, S & Kulkarni, V 2022, Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City: A case study. in B Feng, G Pedrielli, Y Peng, S Shashaani, E Song, CG Corlu, LH Lee, EP Chew, T Roeder & P Lendermann (eds), Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022. Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference, vol. 2022-December, IEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, pp. 593-604, Winter Simulation Conference 2022, Guilin, China, 11/12/22. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015485

Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City: A case study. / Paranjape, Aditya A.; Barat, Souvik; Basu, Anwesha et al.
Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022. ed. / B. Feng; G. Pedrielli; Y. Peng; S. Shashaani; E. Song; C.G. Corlu; L.H. Lee; E.P. Chew; T. Roeder; P. Lendermann. IEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2022. p. 593-604 (Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference; Vol. 2022-December).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Paper › Other

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T1 - Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City

T2 - Winter Simulation Conference 2022

AU - Paranjape, Aditya A.

AU - Barat, Souvik

AU - Basu, Anwesha

AU - Salvi, Rohan

AU - Ghosh, Supratim

AU - Kulkarni, Vinay

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AB - We present a case study on modeling and predicting the course of Covid-19 in the Indian city of Pune. The results presented in this paper are concerned primarily with the wave of infections triggered by the Delta variant during the period between February and June 2021. Our work demonstrates the necessity for bringing together compartmental stock-and-flow and agent-based models and the limitations of each approach when used individually. Some of the work presented here was carried out in the process of advising the local city administration and reflects the challenges associated with employing these models in a real-world environment with its uncertainties and time pressures. Our experience, described in the paper, also highlights the risks associated with forecasting the course of an epidemic with evolving variants.

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A2 - Corlu, C.G.

A2 - Lee, L.H.

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PB - IEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers

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ER -

Paranjape AA, Barat S, Basu A, Salvi R, Ghosh S, Kulkarni V. Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City: A case study. In Feng B, Pedrielli G, Peng Y, Shashaani S, Song E, Corlu CG, Lee LH, Chew EP, Roeder T, Lendermann P, editors, Proceedings of the 2022 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2022. IEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2022. p. 593-604. (Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference). doi: 10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015485

Modeling and simulation for the spread of Covid-19 in an Indian City: A case study

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