Modeling and analysis of block arrival times in the Bitcoin blockchain

R. Bowden, H. P. Keeler, A. E. Krzesinski, P. G. Taylor

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)


In the original Bitcoin paper and other research papers since, it is assumed that Bitcoin blocks are mined at the instants of a homogeneous Poisson process. Based on blockchain block arrival data and stochastic analysis of the block arrival process, we demonstrate that this is not the case. We present a framework for studying the block arrival process, including two refined mathematical models for block arrivals, determined by combining models for a period of constant difficulty and how the difficulty evolves over time.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)602-637
Number of pages36
JournalStochastic Models
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Externally publishedYes


  • Bitcoin blockchain
  • block mining model
  • hash rate
  • mining difficulty adjustment
  • Poisson process

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