MOD3D-PAT - A novel modified 3rd degree polynomial approximation for modelling traffic congestion in urban areas

Traffic congestion continues to be a concern up to this day despite the efforts of many studies to overcome it. Even though there are various state-of-the-art methods such as machine learning to model traffic congestion, there are many factors that are computationally expensive to take into account in this modelling process. This paper aims to provide the following: (i) study general traffic behaviours in an urban or suburban location based on online traffic information (Traffic API), (ii) propose a novel generalised mathematical model used to model traffic congestion for a given set of parameters, and (iii) evaluate the robustness of the proposed mathematical model with traffic data from certain cities in Malaysia (Bukit Bintang, Bandar Sunway, and Damansara Utama). The model was tested on traffic patterns of different days. The goodness-of-fit (R-squared value) and root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of the models for the various tests were obtained. Overall, the model shows a good approximation for all three areas where the main location, Bukit Bintang having an R-square of 0.93 and a RMSE of 0.035 as the worst result and an R-Square of 0.97 and RMSE of 0.024 as the best. Sharp and varied peaks in traffic during the evening such as those in Bandar Sunway can affect the results, but the proposed model is still able to provide a reliable model as per the characteristics of a 3rd degree polynomial, where the evening traffic is averaged out. The proposed model also displays a similar level of accuracy for the suburban area of Damansara Utama.