Projects per year
Features of time series are useful in identifying suitable models for forecasting. We present a general framework, labelled Feature-based FORecast Model Selection (FFORMS), which selects forecast models based on features calculated from each time series. The FFORMS framework builds a mapping that relates the features of a time series to the “best” forecast model using a classification algorithm such as a random forest. The framework is evaluated using time series from the M-forecasting competitions and is shown to yield forecasts that are almost as accurate as state-of-the-art methods but are much faster to compute. We use model-agnostic machine learning interpretability methods to explore the results and to study what types of time series are best suited to each forecasting model.
- algorithm selection problem
- black-box models
- machine learning interpretability
- random forest
- 1 Finished
ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers of Big Data, Big Models, New Insights
Hall, P., Bartlett, P., Bean, N., Burrage, K., DeGier, J., Delaigle, A., Forrester, P., Geweke, J., Kohn, R., Kroese, D., Mengersen, K. L., Pettit, A., Pollett, P., Roughan, M., Ryan, L. M., Taylor, P., Turner, I., Wand, M., Garoni, T., Smith-Miles, K. A., Caley, M., Churches, T., Elazar, D., Gupta, A., Harch, B., Tam, S., Weegberg, K., Willinger, W. & Hyndman, R.
Australian Research Council (ARC), Monash University – Internal Department Contribution, University of Melbourne, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), University of Adelaide, University of New South Wales (UNSW), University of Queensland , University of Technology (UTS) Sydney, Monash University – Internal University Contribution, Monash University – Internal Faculty Contribution, Monash University – Internal School Contribution, Roads Corporation (trading as VicRoads) (Victoria)
1/01/17 → 31/12/21