Measuring downstream supply chain performance using Bayesian networks

V. Khodakarami, M. Abolghasemi, H. Tehranifard

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearch


Increase of costs and complexities in organizations beside the increase of uncertainty and risks have led the managers to use the risk management in order to decrease risk taking and deviation from goals. During the years different methods have been used by researchers in order to manage supply chain risk but most of them are qualitative. On the other hand just in few quantitative models, the effects of risks on each other have been not evaluated. In this paper the risk metrics will be modeled in downstream supply chain which is a part of chain related to sale, distribution and products' costumers. First qualitative assessment will be done by recognizing risk metrics of supply chain model and then by combining qualified and quantified metrics, downstream supply chain performance will be measured and key factors will be recognized. Total cost is the most important factor and production cost is the most important criteria which can affect downstream supply chain performance. Also style change between criteria has the least impact and importance. Finally through a case study example, the performance and validation of proposed model will be presented.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationJoint International Symposium on "The Social Impacts of Developments in Information, Manufacturing and Service Systems", CIE'44 44th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE on COMPUTERS & INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND IMSS'14 9th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM on INTELLIGENT MANUFACTURING and SERVICE SYSTEMS, Proceedings
EditorsCemalettin Kubat, Gultekin Cagil, Ozer Uygun
Place of PublicationPiscataway NJ USA
PublisherIEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Number of pages15
ISBN (Electronic)9781634396790
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Externally publishedYes
EventInternational Conference on Computers and Industrial Engineering (CIE) 2014 - Istanbul, Türkiye
Duration: 14 Oct 201416 Oct 2014
Conference number: 44th


ConferenceInternational Conference on Computers and Industrial Engineering (CIE) 2014
Abbreviated titleCIE 2014
Internet address


  • Bayesian networks
  • Downstream supply chain performance
  • Risk management

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