Marketers' intuitions about the sales effectiveness of advertisements

Nicole Hartnett, Rachel Kennedy, Byron Sharp, Luke Greenacre

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review


Advertisements vary enormously in their sales effectiveness, so choosing the more effective advertisements to air is an important marketing task. Such decisions are often made intuitively. This study assesses the intuitive predictions made by a global sample of marketers regarding which television ads are more or less sales effective. The findings show that marketers’ predictions were correct no more often than random chance. Multivariate analysis suggests that those with category experience and those in marketing or consumer insights roles make slightly better predictions. Aside from who makes better predictions, further research is needed on how to improve advertising decisions, including use of evidence-based decision support systems and team decision-making.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)177-194
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Marketing Behavior
Issue number2-3
Publication statusPublished - 2016
Externally publishedYes


  • individual decision making
  • marketing decision models
  • marketing information systems

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