Abstract
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 353-358 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Nature |
| Volume | 574 |
| Issue number | 7778 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 17 Oct 2019 |
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In: Nature, Vol. 574, No. 7778, 17.10.2019, p. 353-358.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
AU - Burstein, Roy
AU - Henry, Nathaniel J.
AU - Collison, Michael L.
AU - Marczak, Laurie B.
AU - Sligar, Amber
AU - Watson, Stefanie
AU - Marquez, Neal
AU - Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Mahdieh
AU - Abbasi, Masoumeh
AU - Abd-Allah, Foad
AU - Abdoli, Amir
AU - Abdollahi, Mohammad
AU - Abdollahpour, Ibrahim
AU - Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
AU - Abrigo, Michael R.M.
AU - Acharya, Dilaram
AU - Adebayo, Oladimeji M.
AU - Adekanmbi, Victor
AU - Adham, Davoud
AU - Afshari, Mahdi
AU - Aghaali, Mohammad
AU - Ahmadi, Keivan
AU - Ahmadi, Mehdi
AU - Ahmadpour, Ehsan
AU - Ahmed, Rushdia
AU - Akal, Chalachew Genet
AU - Akinyemi, Joshua O.
AU - Alahdab, Fares
AU - Alam, Noore
AU - Alamene, Genet Melak
AU - Alene, Kefyalew Addis
AU - Alijanzadeh, Mehran
AU - Alinia, Cyrus
AU - Alipour, Vahid
AU - Aljunid, Syed Mohamed
AU - Almalki, Mohammed J.
AU - Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M.
AU - Altirkawi, Khalid
AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
AU - Amegah, Adeladza Kofi
AU - Amini, Saeed
AU - Amit, Arianna Maever Loreche
AU - Anbari, Zohreh
AU - Androudi, Sofia
AU - Anjomshoa, Mina
AU - Ansari, Fereshteh
AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.
AU - Arabloo, Jalal
AU - Arefi, Zohreh
AU - Aremu, Olatunde
AU - Armoon, Bahram
AU - Arora, Amit
AU - Artaman, Al
AU - Asadi, Anvar
AU - Asadi-Aliabadi, Mehran
AU - Ashraf-Ganjouei, Amir
AU - Assadi, Reza
AU - Ataeinia, Bahar
AU - Atre, Sachin R.
AU - Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala
AU - Ayanore, Martin Amogre
AU - Azari, Samad
AU - Babaee, Ebrahim
AU - Babazadeh, Arefeh
AU - Badawi, Alaa
AU - Bagheri, Soghra
AU - Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba
AU - Baheiraei, Nafiseh
AU - Balouchi, Abbas
AU - Barac, Aleksandra
AU - Bassat, Quique
AU - Baune, Bernhard T.
AU - Bayati, Mohsen
AU - Bedi, Neeraj
AU - Beghi, Ettore
AU - Behzadifar, Masoud
AU - Behzadifar, Meysam
AU - Belay, Yared Belete
AU - Bell, Brent
AU - Bell, Michelle L.
AU - Berbada, Dessalegn Ajema
AU - Bernstein, Robert S.
AU - Bhattacharjee, Natalia V.
AU - Bhattarai, Suraj
AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
AU - Bijani, Ali
AU - Bohlouli, Somayeh
AU - Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.
AU - Britton, Gabrielle
AU - Browne, Annie J.
AU - Nagaraja, Sharath Burugina
AU - Busse, Reinhard
AU - Butt, Zahid A.
AU - Car, Josip
AU - Cárdenas, Rosario
AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.
AU - Cerin, Ester
AU - Chanie, Wagaye Fentahun
AU - Chatterjee, Pranab
AU - Chu, Dinh Toi
AU - Cooper, Cyrus
AU - Costa, Vera M.
AU - Dalal, Koustuv
AU - Dandona, Lalit
AU - Dandona, Rakhi
AU - Daoud, Farah
AU - Daryani, Ahmad
AU - Das Gupta, Rajat
AU - Davis, Ian
AU - Davis Weaver, Nicole
AU - Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil
AU - De Neve, Jan Walter
AU - Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen
AU - Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam
AU - Deribe, Kebede
AU - Desai, Rupak
AU - Deshpande, Aniruddha
AU - Desyibelew, Hanna Demelash
AU - Dey, Sagnik
AU - Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda
AU - Dhimal, Meghnath
AU - Diaz, Daniel
AU - Doshmangir, Leila
AU - Duraes, Andre R.
AU - Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura
AU - Earl, Lucas
AU - Ebrahimi, Roya
AU - Ebrahimpour, Soheil
AU - Effiong, Andem
AU - Eftekhari, Aziz
AU - Ehsani-Chimeh, Elham
AU - El Sayed, Iman
AU - El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa
AU - El Tantawi, Maha
AU - El-Khatib, Ziad
AU - Emamian, Mohammad Hassan
AU - Enany, Shymaa
AU - Eskandarieh, Sharareh
AU - Eyawo, Oghenowede
AU - Ezalarab, Maha
AU - Faramarzi, Mahbobeh
AU - Fareed, Mohammad
AU - Faridnia, Roghiyeh
AU - Faro, Andre
AU - Fazaeli, Ali Akbar
AU - Fazlzadeh, Mehdi
AU - Fentahun, Netsanet
AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad
AU - Fernandes, João C.
AU - Filip, Irina
AU - Fischer, Florian
AU - Foigt, Nataliya A.
AU - Foroutan, Masoud
AU - Francis, Joel Msafiri
AU - Fukumoto, Takeshi
AU - Fullman, Nancy
AU - Gallus, Silvano
AU - Gebre, Destallem Gebremedhin
AU - Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
AU - Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn
AU - Gessner, Bradford D.
AU - Geta, Birhanu
AU - Gething, Peter W.
AU - Ghadimi, Reza
AU - Ghadiri, Keyghobad
AU - Ghajarzadeh, Mahsa
AU - Ghashghaee, Ahmad
AU - Gill, Paramjit Singh
AU - Gill, Tiffany K.
AU - Golding, Nick
AU - Gomes, Nelson G.M.
AU - Gona, Philimon N.
AU - Gopalani, Sameer Vali
AU - Gorini, Giuseppe
AU - Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia
AU - Graetz, Nicholas
AU - Greaves, Felix
AU - Green, Manfred S.
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin
AU - Haj-Mirzaian, Arya
AU - Hall, Brian James
AU - Hamidi, Samer
AU - Haririan, Hamidreza
AU - Haro, Josep Maria
AU - Hasankhani, Milad
AU - Hasanpoor, Edris
AU - Hasanzadeh, Amir
AU - Hassankhani, Hadi
AU - Hassen, Hamid Yimam
AU - Hegazy, Mohamed I.
AU - Hendrie, Delia
AU - Heydarpour, Fatemeh
AU - Hird, Thomas R.
AU - Hoang, Chi Linh
AU - Hollerich, Gillian
AU - Rad, Enayatollah Homaie
AU - Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Mojtaba
AU - Hossain, Naznin
AU - Hosseini, Mostafa
AU - Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi
AU - Hostiuc, Mihaela
AU - Hostiuc, Sorin
AU - Househ, Mowafa
AU - Hsairi, Mohamed
AU - Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen
AU - Imani-Nasab, Mohammad Hasan
AU - Iqbal, Usman
AU - Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi
AU - Islam, Nazrul
AU - Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful
AU - Jürisson, Mikk
AU - Balalami, Nader Jafari
AU - Jalali, Amir
AU - Javidnia, Javad
AU - Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra
AU - Jenabi, Ensiyeh
AU - Ji, John S.
AU - Jobanputra, Yash B.
AU - Johnson, Kimberly
AU - Jonas, Jost B.
AU - Shushtari, Zahra Jorjoran
AU - Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy
AU - Kabir, Ali
AU - Kahsay, Amaha
AU - Kalani, Hamed
AU - Kalhor, Rohollah
AU - Karami, Manoochehr
AU - Karki, Surendra
AU - Kasaeian, Amir
AU - Kassebaum, Nicholas J.
AU - Keiyoro, Peter Njenga
AU - Kemp, Grant Rodgers
AU - Khabiri, Roghayeh
AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh
AU - Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif
AU - Khan, Ejaz Ahmad
AU - Khan, Junaid
AU - Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb
AU - Khang, Young Ho
AU - Khatab, Khaled
AU - Khater, Amir
AU - Khater, Mona M.
AU - Khatony, Alireza
AU - Khazaei, Mohammad
AU - Khazaei, Salman
AU - Khazaei-Pool, Maryam
AU - Khubchandani, Jagdish
AU - Kianipour, Neda
AU - Kim, Yun Jin
AU - Kimokoti, Ruth W.
AU - Kinyoki, Damaris K.
AU - Kisa, Adnan
AU - Kisa, Sezer
AU - Kolola, Tufa
AU - Kosen, Soewarta
AU - Koul, Parvaiz A.
AU - Koyanagi, Ai
AU - Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
AU - Krishan, Kewal
AU - Krohn, Kristopher J.
AU - Kugbey, Nuworza
AU - Kumar, G. Anil
AU - Kumar, Manasi
AU - Kumar, Pushpendra
AU - Kuupiel, Desmond
AU - Lacey, Ben
AU - Lad, Sheetal D.
AU - Lami, Faris Hasan
AU - Larsson, Anders O.
AU - Lee, Paul H.
AU - Leili, Mostafa
AU - Levine, Aubrey J.
AU - Li, Shanshan
AU - Ofori-Asenso, Richard
AU - Renzaho, Andre M.N.
AU - Zaman, Sojib Bin
PY - 2019/10/17
Y1 - 2019/10/17
N2 - Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
AB - Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073458638&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0
DO - 10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0
M3 - Article
C2 - 31619795
AN - SCOPUS:85073458638
SN - 0028-0836
VL - 574
SP - 353
EP - 358
JO - Nature
JF - Nature
IS - 7778
ER -