Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Roy Burstein, Nathaniel J. Henry, Michael L. Collison, Laurie B. Marczak, Amber Sligar, Stefanie Watson, Neal Marquez, Mahdieh Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Masoumeh Abbasi, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, Mohammad Abdollahi, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Dilaram Acharya, Oladimeji M. Adebayo, Victor Adekanmbi, Davoud Adham, Mahdi AfshariMohammad Aghaali, Keivan Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Rushdia Ahmed, Chalachew Genet Akal, Joshua O. Akinyemi, Fares Alahdab, Noore Alam, Genet Melak Alamene, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Cyrus Alinia, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Mohammed J. Almalki, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Khalid Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Saeed Amini, Arianna Maever Loreche Amit, Zohreh Anbari, Sofia Androudi, Mina Anjomshoa, Fereshteh Ansari, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Jalal Arabloo, Zohreh Arefi, Olatunde Aremu, Bahram Armoon, Amit Arora, Al Artaman, Anvar Asadi, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Amir Ashraf-Ganjouei, Reza Assadi, Bahar Ataeinia, Sachin R. Atre, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Samad Azari, Ebrahim Babaee, Arefeh Babazadeh, Alaa Badawi, Soghra Bagheri, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Nafiseh Baheiraei, Abbas Balouchi, Aleksandra Barac, Quique Bassat, Bernhard T. Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Yared Belete Belay, Brent Bell, Michelle L. Bell, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Robert S. Bernstein, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Suraj Bhattarai, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Nicholas J.K. Breitborde, Gabrielle Britton, Annie J. Browne, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Reinhard Busse, Zahid A. Butt, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Ester Cerin, Wagaye Fentahun Chanie, Pranab Chatterjee, Dinh Toi Chu, Cyrus Cooper, Vera M. Costa, Koustuv Dalal, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Farah Daoud, Ahmad Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, Ian Davis, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Jan Walter De Neve, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Kebede Deribe, Rupak Desai, Aniruddha Deshpande, Hanna Demelash Desyibelew, Sagnik Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Daniel Diaz, Leila Doshmangir, Andre R. Duraes, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Lucas Earl, Roya Ebrahimi, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Andem Effiong, Aziz Eftekhari, Elham Ehsani-Chimeh, Iman El Sayed, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Ziad El-Khatib, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Shymaa Enany, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Oghenowede Eyawo, Maha Ezalarab, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Andre Faro, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, João C. Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A. Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Joel Msafiri Francis, Takeshi Fukumoto, Nancy Fullman, Silvano Gallus, Destallem Gebremedhin Gebre, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Bradford D. Gessner, Birhanu Geta, Peter W. Gething, Reza Ghadimi, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Mahsa Ghajarzadeh, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Paramjit Singh Gill, Tiffany K. Gill, Nick Golding, Nelson G.M. Gomes, Philimon N. Gona, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Giuseppe Gorini, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Nicholas Graetz, Felix Greaves, Manfred S. Green, Yuming Guo, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Brian James Hall, Samer Hamidi, Hamidreza Haririan, Josep Maria Haro, Milad Hasankhani, Edris Hasanpoor, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Mohamed I. Hegazy, Delia Hendrie, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Thomas R. Hird, Chi Linh Hoang, Gillian Hollerich, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Mojtaba Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Naznin Hossain, Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Mohamed Hsairi, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Nazrul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Mikk Jürisson, Nader Jafari Balalami, Amir Jalali, Javad Javidnia, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ensiyeh Jenabi, John S. Ji, Yash B. Jobanputra, Kimberly Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, Amaha Kahsay, Hamed Kalani, Rohollah Kalhor, Manoochehr Karami, Surendra Karki, Amir Kasaeian, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Roghayeh Khabiri, Yousef Saleh Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Young Ho Khang, Khaled Khatab, Amir Khater, Mona M. Khater, Alireza Khatony, Mohammad Khazaei, Salman Khazaei, Maryam Khazaei-Pool, Jagdish Khubchandani, Neda Kianipour, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W. Kimokoti, Damaris K. Kinyoki, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Tufa Kolola, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A. Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Kewal Krishan, Kristopher J. Krohn, Nuworza Kugbey, G. Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Desmond Kuupiel, Ben Lacey, Sheetal D. Lad, Faris Hasan Lami, Anders O. Larsson, Paul H. Lee, Mostafa Leili, Aubrey J. Levine, Shanshan Li, Richard Ofori-Asenso, Andre M.N. Renzaho, Sojib Bin Zaman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

84 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)353-358
Number of pages6
JournalNature
Volume574
Issue number7778
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 17 Oct 2019

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