Lifetime risk of primary shoulder arthroplasty from 2008‐2017: A population‐level analysis using national registry data

Daisuke Miura, Ljoudmila Busija, Richard S Page, Richard de Steiger, Michelle Lorimer, Ilana N Ackerman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review


Objective: To estimate the lifetime risk of primary shoulder arthroplasty in Australia and examine changes over time. Methods: For this retrospective population-level analysis, de-identified individual-level data on all primary partial (PSA) and total shoulder (TSA) arthroplasty procedures performed in Australia from 2008-2017 (N=38,868) were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Population data and life tables were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Lifetime risk of primary shoulder arthroplasty was calculated for each year using a standardised formula. Separate calculations were undertaken by sex, and for PSA and TSA. Results: The lifetime risk of shoulder arthroplasty increased significantly over time. For males, this more than doubled from 0.78% (95%CI 0.73%-0.84%) in 2008 to 1.78% (95%CI 1.70%- 1.86%) in 2017. Lifetime risk for females rose from 1.54% (95%CI 1.46%-1.62%) to 2.88% (95%CI 2.78%-2.99%) over the study period. This was predominantly driven by growth in lifetime risk of TSA. In contrast, lifetime risk of PSA decreased over time, from 0.25% (95%CI 0.22%- 0.28%) in 2008 to 0.11% (95%CI 0.09%-0.13%) in 2017 for males, and from 0.55% (95%CI 0.51%-0.60%) to 0.11% (95%CI 0.09%-0.13%) for females. Conclusions: By the end of 2017, lifetime risk of primary shoulder arthroplasty in Australia increased to 1 in 57 for males and 1 in 35 for females. Compared to declining PSA trends, there was substantial growth in TSA use over a decade. These data improve our understanding of the rising national burden of primary shoulder arthroplasty, and can assist in planning to meet future surgical demand.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages23
JournalArthritis Care & Research
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 17 Jun 2020


  • Osteoarthritis
  • Rotator cuff arthropathy
  • Shoulder arthroplasty
  • Shoulder replacement

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