Leveraging expert elicitation for a novel Victorian food security decision support system

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstractpeer-review


Context: Food insecurity, the limited or uncertain physical, economic, social access to food, is a complex public health problem with multiple determinants requiring innovative solutions. The predominate Australian response is focused on food relief through the charitable food sector, rather than policy based solutions, failing to address the known determinants of food insecurity. One difficulty for policy-makers wishing to make evidence-based decisions regarding interventions that will best support household food security is how to access high quality evidence, combine it coherently to formulate and evaluate policy options. Process: Decision support systems utilising existing knowledge, data, expert judgment and modelling facilitate the informed decision making necessary for estimating and comparing the potential effectiveness of policy options. In developing a food security decision support system for Victoria it was necessary to overcome the absence of evidence to quantify elements of income, food cost and location, which impact household food insecurity. Analysis & Outcomes: Structured expert elicitation is a method for quantitatively characterizing the state of knowledge about an uncertain quantity. The IDEA protocol (Investigate, Discuss, Estimate, Aggregate) is a validated method for aggregating expert judgements combining behavioural (seeking consensus) and mathematical processes. This was undertaken with identified Victorian food security experts in an elicitation designed to quantify the probability of household food security in Victoria given various combinations of location, income and food cost scenarios. The process and outcomes of implementing this structured expert elicitation in identifying the effect on household food insecurity by combining scenarios of key determinants will be reported.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 26 Oct 2018
EventAustralian Public Health Conference 2018
: Leadership in public health: Challenges for local and planetary communities
- Pullman Cairns International, Cairns, Australia
Duration: 26 Sep 201828 Sep 2018
Conference number: 45th


ConferenceAustralian Public Health Conference 2018
OtherThe Australian Public Health Conference (formally the PHAA Annual Conference) is the flag ship event for PHAA to engage with PHAA members and non-members alike. The Conference was first established in the 1970's and will be celebrating its 45th year in 2018.
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