Dengue activity depends on fluctuations in Aedes populations which in turn are known to be influenced by climate factors including temperature, humidity and rainfall. It has been hypothesized that haze may reduce dengue transmission. Due to its geographical location Singapore suffers almost every year from hazes caused by wildfires from Indonesia. Such hazes have a significant impact on pollution indexes in Singapore. We set out to study the relationship of dengue activity and haze (measured as pollution standard index) in Singapore, using ARIMA models. We ran different univariate models, each encompassing a different lag period for the effects of haze and temperature (from lag 0 to lag 12 weeks). We analysed the data on a natural logarithmic scale to stabilize the variance and improve the estimation. No association between dengue activity and haze was found. Our findings do not lend support to the hypothesis that haze is associated with reduced dengue activity in Singapore.
- Autoregressive integrated moving average
- Predictive models