This paper examines the relationship between exports and real output using quarterly seasonally unadjusted Korean data covering the period 1970-1995. The relationship is examined using seasonal error correction modelling, seasonal cointegration, structural time series modelling and causality testing. The results show that exports have a positive but small effect on output, and that the adjustment to the long-run equilibrium relationship is rather slow. It is concluded that while exports exert a positive effect on output, the effect is not as strong as it is normally portrayed to be.
|Number of pages||19|
|Publication status||Published - 1 Apr 1998|
- Causality testing
- Error correction models
- Export-led growth hypothesis
- Structural time series modelling