@article{c7522bb4e0aa4d2a8cef4cb43521dbe6,
title = "Invasion trends: An interpretable measure of change is needed to support policy targets",
abstract = "The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) calls for a 50% reduction in rates of invasive alien species establishment by 2030. However, estimating changes in rates of introduction and establishment is far from straightforward, particularly on a national scale. Variation in survey effort over time, the absence of data on survey effort, and aspects of the invasion process itself interact in ways that make rate estimates from naive models of invasion trends inaccurate. To support progress toward robust global and national reporting against the GBF invasions target, we illustrate this problem using a combination of simulations, and global and national scale case studies. We provide recommendations and a clear set of steps that are needed for progress. These include routine collection of survey effort data as part of surveillance and monitoring protocols and working closely with researchers to develop meaningful estimates of change in biological invasions. Better awareness of this challenge and investment in developing robust approaches will be required from Parties if progress on Target 6 of the GBF is to be tracked and achieved.",
keywords = "Convention on Biological Diversity, Essential Biodiversity Variables, EU's biodiversity strategy 2030, Global Biodiversity Monitoring Framework, invasive alien species, rate of establishment, species populations data, survey effort, Target 6",
author = "McGeoch, {Melodie A.} and Yehezkel Buba and Eduardo Arl{\'e} and Jonathan Belmaker and Clarke, {David A.} and Walter Jetz and Richard Li and Hanno Seebens and Franz Essl and Quentin Groom and Emili Garc{\'i}a-Berthou and Bernd Lenzner and Carsten Meyer and Vicente, {Joana R.} and Wilson, {John R.U.} and Marten Winter",
note = "Funding Information: sTWIST is supported by sDiv, the iDiv Synthesis Centre (DFG FZT 118, 202548816). The work was further supported by an Australian Friends of Tel Aviv University—Monash University Research Collaboration Award to J.B. and M.M. This work is a contribution to the GEO BON Species Populations Working Group ( https://geobon.org/ebvs/working‐groups/species‐populations ). We thank M.V. Henriksen and S.L. Chown for the discussion. M.M. and D.A.C. acknowledge the support of ARC SRIEAS Grant SR200100005 Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future. F.E. and B.L. appreciate funding by the Austrian Science Foundation FWF (grant no. I 5825‐B). E.A., F.E., C.M., and M.W. acknowledge funding for this work through iDiv's Flexpool mechanism. E.A. acknowledges funding granted by the Azrieli Foundation. J.R.V. acknowledges research contract DL57/2016/CP1440/CT0024. E.G.‐B. acknowledges funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science (PID2019‐103936GB‐C21 and TED2021‐129889B‐I00). J.R.U.W. thanks the South African Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment (DFFE) for funding, noting that this publication does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of DFFE or its employees. The authors thank Rachel Leihy and Steven Chown for presubmission comments on the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors. Conservation Letters published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.",
year = "2023",
month = nov,
doi = "10.1111/conl.12981",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
journal = "Conservation Letters",
issn = "1755-263X",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "6",
}