Incidence, risk factors, and epidemiological trends of tracheal cancer: a global analysis

Background: Tracheal cancer is a rare malignancy with limited research but high mortality rates. This study aims to analyse recent data to understand the global burden, trends, and risk factors for tracheal cancer, facilitating improved prevention and treatment strategies. Methods: We conducted a study on tracheal cancer using data from the Global Cancer Observatory and the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents databases. We collected information on the incidence of tracheal cancer, risk factors, and the Human Development Index (HDI) at the country level. The univariate linear regression was used to explore the relationship between tracheal cancer and the various risk factors. We utilised joinpoint regression analysis to calculate the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) in tracheal cancer incidence. Results: The global age-standardised rate of incidence of tracheal cancer was 2.9 per 10 million (3,472 cases in total) in 2022, with the highest regional incidence observed in Central and Eastern Europe (ASR = 9.0) and the highest national incidence in Hungary (12.5). Higher incidence was found among the males (3.8) than females (2.0); among the older adults aged 50-74 (11.9) than the younger population aged 15-49 (1.2). A higher tracheal cancer incidence ratio was associated with higher levels of smoking, alcohol drinking, diabetes, lipid disorders, and HDI. Despite the overall decreasing trends for all population groups (highest decrease in Thailand; AAPC: -15.06, 95% CI: -21.76 to -7.78, p = 0.002), there was an increase in some female populations (highest increase in Colombia, AAPC: 19.28, 95% CI: 16.48 to 22.15, p < 0.001) and younger populations (highest increase in Ireland; AAPC: 29.84, 95% CI: 25.74 to 34.06, p < 0.001). Conclusion: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of tracheal cancer, focusing on risk factors and population-level trends. There has been an overall decreasing trend in the incidence of tracheal cancer, particularly among males and older adults, while the decline is less pronounced in females and younger individuals. Further research is needed to explore the underlying drivers of these epidemiological trends.