Implied volatility of structured warrants: Emerging market evidence

Najmi Ismail Murad Samsudin, Azhar Mohamad, Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    This paper examines the informational content of Implied Volatility (IV) for 493 Malaysian and 945 Thai structured call warrants from 2014 to 2015. Unlike a regular warrant (issued by the firm) and attached to bonds, loan stocks, or preferred stocks as sweeteners, a structured warrant is issued by a third party. Structured warrant is a prevalent exchange-traded instrument in South-East Asian countries. This study is among the first to examine the IV of structured warrants using emerging market datasets from Bursa Malaysia and the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Our predictive regression models compare IV's effectiveness in anticipating future realized volatility vis-à-vis historical volatility. We record that IV in both exchanges contains relevant information about future realized volatility only on a handful of occasions. Additionally, structured warrants' IV is a mostly biased predictor with a diminutive efficiency threshold. Our findings bear implications for the region's derivatives market growth and risk management practices.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)464-479
    Number of pages16
    JournalQuarterly Review of Economics and Finance
    Volume80
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - May 2021

    Keywords

    • Bursa Malaysia
    • Derivatives
    • Implied volatility
    • Information content
    • Stock exchange of Thailand
    • Structured warrants

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