Impacts of regional conflicts on tourism in Africa and the Middle East: a spatial panel data approach

The present study explores the impacts of regional conflicts on tourism in the Middle East and African countries. The adopted dataset covers 2001–2017 and examines the effects of such conflicts and the resulting risks on the tourism industry for thirty-nine countries. Diagnostic tests confirmed and the spatial Durbin model selected as the estimation model. According to the results, economic growth in the origin country and in neighbouring countries increases domestic tourists in number. The results showed conflicting spillover of domestic and foreign prices in the impacts of relative prices on the arrival of tourists. Rising prices in neighbouring countries lead to more domestic tourists, while higher domestic prices were revealed to be an indicator of developed tourism structures and more tourists. Trade openness was not found to have a significant effect on the arrival of tourists. Also, the results demonstrate that countries with higher levels of conflict experience lower rates of tourist arrival. In addition, according to the results, managing the political risk of countries and reducing conflicts over time cannot significantly improve the arrival of tourists, in the short run. It is observed that political risks for tourists form in a long-term context, and its alteration requires time.