Abstract
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 1796 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | Nature Communications |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 27 Feb 2024 |
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In: Nature Communications, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1796, 27.02.2024.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels
AU - Chen, Kai
AU - de Schrijver, Evan
AU - Sivaraj, Sidharth
AU - Sera, Francesco
AU - Scovronick, Noah
AU - Jiang, Leiwen
AU - Roye, Dominic
AU - Lavigne, Eric
AU - Kyselý, Jan
AU - Urban, Aleš
AU - Schneider, Alexandra
AU - Huber, Veronika
AU - Madureira, Joana
AU - Mistry, Malcolm N.
AU - Cvijanovic, Ivana
AU - Gasparrini, Antonio
AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
AU - Armstrong, Ben
AU - Schneider, Rochelle
AU - Tobias, Aurelio
AU - Astrom, Christofer
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Honda, Yasushi
AU - Abrutzky, Rosana
AU - Tong, Shilu
AU - de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline
AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
AU - Correa, Patricia Matus
AU - Ortega, Nicolás Valdés
AU - Kan, Haidong
AU - Osorio, Samuel
AU - Orru, Hans
AU - Indermitte, Ene
AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.
AU - Ryti, Niilo
AU - Pascal, Mathilde
AU - Katsouyanni, Klea
AU - Analitis, Antonis
AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh
AU - Entezari, Alireza
AU - Goodman, Patrick
AU - Zeka, Ariana
AU - Michelozzi, Paola
AU - de’Donato, Francesca
AU - Hashizume, Masahiro
AU - Alahmad, Barrak
AU - Diaz, Magali Hurtado
AU - De la Cruz Valencia, César
AU - Overcenco, Ala
AU - Houthuijs, Danny
AU - Ameling, Caroline
AU - Rao, Shilpa
AU - Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
AU - Seposo, Xerxes
AU - da Silva, Susana Pereira
AU - Holobaca, Iulian Horia
AU - Acquaotta, Fiorella
AU - Kim, Ho
AU - Lee, Whanhee
AU - Íñiguez, Carmen
AU - Forsberg, Bertil
AU - Ragettli, Martina S.
AU - Guo, Yue Liang Leon
AU - Pan, Shih Chun
AU - Li, Shanshan
AU - Colistro, Valentina
AU - Zanobetti, Antonella
AU - Schwartz, Joel
AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc
AU - Van Dung, Do
AU - Carlsen, Hanne Krage
AU - Cauchi, John Paul
AU - Achilleos, Souzana
AU - Raz, Raanan
AU - Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network
N1 - Funding Information: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. K.C. was supported by the Yale Planetary Solutions Project seed grant. A.G., A.S., and S.R. were supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion grant (820655). A.G. was also supported by the Medical Research Council UK grant (MR/V034162/1). J.M. received funding from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia Grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). A.T. was supported by the MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 grant (CEX2018-000794-S). A.U. and J.K. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S). F.S. was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR), Department of Excellence project 2023-2027 ReDS ‘Rethinking Data Science’ - Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications - University of Florence. MNM. was supported by the European Commission (H2020-MSCA-IF-2020) under REA grant agreement no. 101022870. A.V.C. acknowledges the support of the Swiss National Foundation (TMSGI3_211626). V.H. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No.: 101032087). Funding Information: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. K.C. was supported by the Yale Planetary Solutions Project seed grant. A.G., A.S., and S.R. were supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion grant (820655). A.G. was also supported by the Medical Research Council UK grant (MR/V034162/1). J.M. received funding from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia Grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). A.T. was supported by the MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 grant (CEX2018-000794-S). A.U. and J.K. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S). F.S. was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR), Department of Excellence project 2023-2027 ReDS ‘Rethinking Data Science’ - Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications - University of Florence. MNM. was supported by the European Commission (H2020-MSCA-IF-2020) under REA grant agreement no. 101022870. A.V.C. acknowledges the support of the Swiss National Foundation (TMSGI3_211626). V.H. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No.: 101032087). Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.
PY - 2024/2/27
Y1 - 2024/2/27
N2 - Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
AB - Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85186221798
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
DO - 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
M3 - Article
C2 - 38413648
AN - SCOPUS:85186221798
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 15
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 1796
ER -