IDF Diabetes Atlas

Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040

Katherine Ogurtsova, J. D. da Rocha Fernandes, Y. Huang, Ute Linnenkamp, L. Guariguata, Nam H. Cho, David Cavan, J. E. Shaw, L. E. Makaroff

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

673 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Aim To produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. An analytic hierarchy process was used to select the most appropriate studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled using extrapolation from similar countries that had available data. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates, which were applied to UN population estimates. Results 540 data sources were reviewed, of which 196 sources from 111 countries were selected. In 2015 it was estimated that there were 415 million (uncertainty interval: 340–536 million) people with diabetes aged 20–79 years, 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total global health expenditure due to diabetes was estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three quarters (75%) of those with diabetes were living in low- and middle-income countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20–79 years was predicted to rise to 642 million (uncertainty interval: 521–829 million) by 2040. Conclusion Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenditure due to diabetes continue to rise across the globe with important social, financial and health system implications.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)40-50
Number of pages11
JournalDiabetes Research and Clinical Practice
Volume128
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2017
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Diabetes mellitus
  • Epidemiology
  • Gestational diabetes
  • Health economics
  • Impaired glucose tolerance
  • Mortality

Cite this

Ogurtsova, K., da Rocha Fernandes, J. D., Huang, Y., Linnenkamp, U., Guariguata, L., Cho, N. H., ... Makaroff, L. E. (2017). IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, 128, 40-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2017.03.024
Ogurtsova, Katherine ; da Rocha Fernandes, J. D. ; Huang, Y. ; Linnenkamp, Ute ; Guariguata, L. ; Cho, Nam H. ; Cavan, David ; Shaw, J. E. ; Makaroff, L. E. / IDF Diabetes Atlas : Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. In: Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice. 2017 ; Vol. 128. pp. 40-50.
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Ogurtsova, K, da Rocha Fernandes, JD, Huang, Y, Linnenkamp, U, Guariguata, L, Cho, NH, Cavan, D, Shaw, JE & Makaroff, LE 2017, 'IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040', Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, vol. 128, pp. 40-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2017.03.024

IDF Diabetes Atlas : Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. / Ogurtsova, Katherine; da Rocha Fernandes, J. D.; Huang, Y.; Linnenkamp, Ute; Guariguata, L.; Cho, Nam H.; Cavan, David; Shaw, J. E.; Makaroff, L. E.

In: Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, Vol. 128, 01.06.2017, p. 40-50.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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T2 - Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040

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AU - da Rocha Fernandes, J. D.

AU - Huang, Y.

AU - Linnenkamp, Ute

AU - Guariguata, L.

AU - Cho, Nam H.

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AU - Shaw, J. E.

AU - Makaroff, L. E.

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N2 - Aim To produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. An analytic hierarchy process was used to select the most appropriate studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled using extrapolation from similar countries that had available data. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates, which were applied to UN population estimates. Results 540 data sources were reviewed, of which 196 sources from 111 countries were selected. In 2015 it was estimated that there were 415 million (uncertainty interval: 340–536 million) people with diabetes aged 20–79 years, 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total global health expenditure due to diabetes was estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three quarters (75%) of those with diabetes were living in low- and middle-income countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20–79 years was predicted to rise to 642 million (uncertainty interval: 521–829 million) by 2040. Conclusion Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenditure due to diabetes continue to rise across the globe with important social, financial and health system implications.

AB - Aim To produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. An analytic hierarchy process was used to select the most appropriate studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled using extrapolation from similar countries that had available data. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates, which were applied to UN population estimates. Results 540 data sources were reviewed, of which 196 sources from 111 countries were selected. In 2015 it was estimated that there were 415 million (uncertainty interval: 340–536 million) people with diabetes aged 20–79 years, 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total global health expenditure due to diabetes was estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three quarters (75%) of those with diabetes were living in low- and middle-income countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20–79 years was predicted to rise to 642 million (uncertainty interval: 521–829 million) by 2040. Conclusion Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenditure due to diabetes continue to rise across the globe with important social, financial and health system implications.

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KW - Epidemiology

KW - Gestational diabetes

KW - Health economics

KW - Impaired glucose tolerance

KW - Mortality

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VL - 128

SP - 40

EP - 50

JO - Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice

JF - Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice

SN - 0168-8227

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Ogurtsova K, da Rocha Fernandes JD, Huang Y, Linnenkamp U, Guariguata L, Cho NH et al. IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice. 2017 Jun 1;128:40-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2017.03.024