TY - JOUR
T1 - How do bond, equity and commodity cycles interact?
AU - Narayan, Paresh Kumar
AU - Thuraisamy, Kannan S.
AU - Wagner, Niklas F.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Inc.
Copyright:
Copyright 2017 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2017/5
Y1 - 2017/5
N2 - We address bond, equity, gold as well as oil markets, and examine their lagged interactions including market volatility and consumer prices. Apart from considering returns, we also address the cyclic component of price levels. Study of the monthly lag structure during January 1950 to June 2015 reveals: (i) U.S. cycles and returns show a consistent pattern of predictability, (ii) the bond-equity interaction has self-enforcing and dampening dynamic components, (iii) equity prices negatively react to shocks in uncertainty and slowly build a positive risk premium, (iv) lagged cross-market pricing transmission occurs from gold to bonds to oil and finally to inflation.
AB - We address bond, equity, gold as well as oil markets, and examine their lagged interactions including market volatility and consumer prices. Apart from considering returns, we also address the cyclic component of price levels. Study of the monthly lag structure during January 1950 to June 2015 reveals: (i) U.S. cycles and returns show a consistent pattern of predictability, (ii) the bond-equity interaction has self-enforcing and dampening dynamic components, (iii) equity prices negatively react to shocks in uncertainty and slowly build a positive risk premium, (iv) lagged cross-market pricing transmission occurs from gold to bonds to oil and finally to inflation.
KW - Asset pricing
KW - Commodity markets
KW - Cross-market dependence
KW - Financial cycles
KW - Gold
KW - Granger causality
KW - Market volatility
KW - Oil
KW - Time-varying risk premium
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85006705694&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.frl.2016.11.005
DO - 10.1016/j.frl.2016.11.005
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85006705694
SN - 1544-6123
VL - 21
SP - 151
EP - 156
JO - Finance Research Letters
JF - Finance Research Letters
ER -