@article{a3de762599df4efe83e8d147b32de581,
title = "How chance explains",
abstract = "What explains the outcomes of chance processes? We claim that their setups do. Chances, we think, mediate these explanations of outcome by setup but do not feature in them. Facts about chances do feature in explanations of a different kind: higher-order explanations, which explain how and why setups explain their outcomes. In this paper, we elucidate this 'mediator view' of chancy explanation and defend it from a series of objections. We then show how it changes the playing field in four metaphysical disputes concerning chance. First, it makes it more plausible that even low chances can have explanatory power. Second, it undercuts a circularity objection against reductionist theories of chance. Third, it redirects the debate about a prominent argument against epistemic theories of chance. Finally, it sheds light on potential chancy explanations of the Universe's origin.",
author = "Hicks, \{Michael Townsen\} and Alastair Wilson",
note = "Funding Information: For helpful feedback and discussion on this work, we are grateful to the FraMEPhys project team (Nicholas Emmerson, Joaquim Giannotti, Francis Longworth, John Murphy, Joshua Quirke, Noelia Iranzo Ribera, and Katie Robertson), to Alex Moran, Martin Pickup, and participants at their Oxford metaphysics work‐in‐progress seminar, to Ned Hall, Chris Dorst, and participants at their Harvard workshop on Humeanism, to Barry Loewer, to Elizabeth Miller, to Gonzalo Rodriguez‐Pereyra and most of all to Katie Elliott. This work forms part of the project A Framework for Metaphysical Explanation in Physics (FraMEPhys), which received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 757295). Funding for Alastair Wilson's contribution to this work was also provided by the Australian Research Council (grant agreement no. DP180100105). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors. No{\^u}s published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.",
year = "2023",
month = jun,
doi = "10.1111/nous.12401",
language = "English",
volume = "57",
pages = "290--315",
journal = "Nous",
issn = "0029-4624",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "2",
}