Heat Wave and Mortality

A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study

Yuming Guo, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben G Armstrong, Benjawan Tawatsupa, Aurelio Tobias, Eric Lavigne, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Xiaochuan Pan, Ho Kim, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Yue Liang Leon Guo, Chang Fu Wu, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel D. Schwartz, Michelle L Bell, Matteo Scortichini, Paola Michelozzi, Kornwipa Punnasiri, Shanshan Li & 12 others Linwei Tian, Samuel David Osorio Garcia, Xerxes Seposo, Ala Overcenco, Ariana Zeka, Patrick Goodman, Dang Ngoc Tran, Dung Van Do, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Gail Williams, Shilu Tong

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

50 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND:
Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.
OBJECTIVES:
We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally.
METHODS:
We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition.
RESULTS:
Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature.
CONCLUSIONS:
Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature.
Original languageEnglish
Article number087006
Number of pages11
JournalEnvironmental Health Perspectives
Volume125
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2017

Cite this

Guo, Y., Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B. G., Tawatsupa, B., Tobias, A., Lavigne, E., ... Tong, S. (2017). Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125(8), [087006]. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026
Guo, Yuming ; Gasparrini, Antonio ; Armstrong, Ben G ; Tawatsupa, Benjawan ; Tobias, Aurelio ; Lavigne, Eric ; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline ; Pan, Xiaochuan ; Kim, Ho ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Honda, Yasushi ; Guo, Yue Liang Leon ; Wu, Chang Fu ; Zanobetti, Antonella ; Schwartz, Joel D. ; Bell, Michelle L ; Scortichini, Matteo ; Michelozzi, Paola ; Punnasiri, Kornwipa ; Li, Shanshan ; Tian, Linwei ; Garcia, Samuel David Osorio ; Seposo, Xerxes ; Overcenco, Ala ; Zeka, Ariana ; Goodman, Patrick ; Tran, Dang Ngoc ; Do, Dung Van ; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh ; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento ; Williams, Gail ; Tong, Shilu. / Heat Wave and Mortality : A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study. In: Environmental Health Perspectives. 2017 ; Vol. 125, No. 8.
@article{e774597054de45e59fcb83330b978558,
title = "Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study",
abstract = "BACKGROUND:Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.OBJECTIVES:We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally.METHODS:We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition.RESULTS:Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature.CONCLUSIONS:Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature.",
author = "Yuming Guo and Antonio Gasparrini and Armstrong, {Ben G} and Benjawan Tawatsupa and Aurelio Tobias and Eric Lavigne and {de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho}, Micheline and Xiaochuan Pan and Ho Kim and Masahiro Hashizume and Yasushi Honda and Guo, {Yue Liang Leon} and Wu, {Chang Fu} and Antonella Zanobetti and Schwartz, {Joel D.} and Bell, {Michelle L} and Matteo Scortichini and Paola Michelozzi and Kornwipa Punnasiri and Shanshan Li and Linwei Tian and Garcia, {Samuel David Osorio} and Xerxes Seposo and Ala Overcenco and Ariana Zeka and Patrick Goodman and Tran, {Dang Ngoc} and Do, {Dung Van} and Fatemeh Mayvaneh and Saldiva, {Paulo Hilario Nascimento} and Gail Williams and Shilu Tong",
year = "2017",
month = "8",
doi = "10.1289/EHP1026",
language = "English",
volume = "125",
journal = "Environmental Health Perspectives",
issn = "0091-6765",
publisher = "National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences",
number = "8",

}

Guo, Y, Gasparrini, A, Armstrong, BG, Tawatsupa, B, Tobias, A, Lavigne, E, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M, Pan, X, Kim, H, Hashizume, M, Honda, Y, Guo, YLL, Wu, CF, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, JD, Bell, ML, Scortichini, M, Michelozzi, P, Punnasiri, K, Li, S, Tian, L, Garcia, SDO, Seposo, X, Overcenco, A, Zeka, A, Goodman, P, Tran, DN, Do, DV, Mayvaneh, F, Saldiva, PHN, Williams, G & Tong, S 2017, 'Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study', Environmental Health Perspectives, vol. 125, no. 8, 087006. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026

Heat Wave and Mortality : A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study. / Guo, Yuming; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben G; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Pan, Xiaochuan; Kim, Ho ; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Liang Leon; Wu, Chang Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Bell, Michelle L; Scortichini, Matteo; Michelozzi, Paola; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Li, Shanshan; Tian, Linwei; Garcia, Samuel David Osorio; Seposo, Xerxes; Overcenco, Ala; Zeka, Ariana; Goodman, Patrick; Tran, Dang Ngoc; Do, Dung Van; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu.

In: Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 125, No. 8, 087006, 08.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Heat Wave and Mortality

T2 - A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Armstrong, Ben G

AU - Tawatsupa, Benjawan

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline

AU - Pan, Xiaochuan

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Guo, Yue Liang Leon

AU - Wu, Chang Fu

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Schwartz, Joel D.

AU - Bell, Michelle L

AU - Scortichini, Matteo

AU - Michelozzi, Paola

AU - Punnasiri, Kornwipa

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Tian, Linwei

AU - Garcia, Samuel David Osorio

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - Overcenco, Ala

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Goodman, Patrick

AU - Tran, Dang Ngoc

AU - Do, Dung Van

AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento

AU - Williams, Gail

AU - Tong, Shilu

PY - 2017/8

Y1 - 2017/8

N2 - BACKGROUND:Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.OBJECTIVES:We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally.METHODS:We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition.RESULTS:Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature.CONCLUSIONS:Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature.

AB - BACKGROUND:Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.OBJECTIVES:We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally.METHODS:We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition.RESULTS:Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature.CONCLUSIONS:Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature.

U2 - 10.1289/EHP1026

DO - 10.1289/EHP1026

M3 - Article

VL - 125

JO - Environmental Health Perspectives

JF - Environmental Health Perspectives

SN - 0091-6765

IS - 8

M1 - 087006

ER -

Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E et al. Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study. Environmental Health Perspectives. 2017 Aug;125(8). 087006. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026