Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870

Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, John Nkwoma Inekwe, Kris Ivanovski

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review


Using a historical data set and recent advances in non-parametric time series modelling, we investigate the nexus between tourism flows and house prices in Germany over nearly 150 years. We use time-varying non-parametric techniques given that historical data tend to exhibit abrupt changes and other forms of non-linearities. Our findings show evidence of a time-varying effect of tourism flows on house prices, although with mixed effects. The pre-World War II time-varying estimates of tourism show both positive and negative effects on house prices. While changes in tourism flows contribute to increasing housing prices over the post-1950 period, this is short-lived, and the effect declines until the mid-1990s. However, we find a positive and significant relationship after 2000, where the impact of tourism on house prices becomes more pronounced in recent years.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages19
JournalTourism Economics
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2021


  • Germany
  • House prices
  • Tourism
  • Tourist arrivals

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