Has oil price predicted stock returns for over a century?

Paresh Kumar Narayan, Rangan Gupta

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

180 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of oil prices in predicting stock returns. The novelty of the paper is that it considers monthly time-series historical data that span over 150. years (1859:10-2013:12) and applies a predictive regression model that accommodates three salient features of the data, namely, a persistent and endogenous oil price, and model heteroscedasticity. Three key findings are unraveled: first, oil price predicts US stock returns. Second, in-sample evidence is corroborated by out-sample evidence of predictability. Third, both positive and negative oil price changes are important predictors of US stock returns, with negative changes relatively more important. Our results are robust to the use of different estimators and choice of in-sample periods.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)18-23
Number of pages6
JournalEnergy Economics
Volume48
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2015
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Oil price
  • Predictability
  • Stock returns

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