H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy

George Verikios, James McCaw, Jodie McVernon, Anthony H Harris

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Early 2009 saw the emergence of an H1N1 influenza epidemic in North America that eventually spread to become the first pandemic of the twenty-first century. Previous work has suggested that pandemics and near-pandemics can have large macroeconomic effects on highly affected regions; here, we estimate what those effects might be for Australia. Our analysis applies the MONASH-Health model: a computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. We deviate from previous work by incorporating two important short-run mechanisms in our analytical framework: quarterly periodicity and excess capacity. The analysis supports the assertion that an H1N1 epidemic could have significant short-run macroeconomic effects but the size of these effects is highly dependent on the degree of inertia in the markets for physical capital and labour.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)22 - 51
Number of pages30
JournalJournal of the Asia Pacific Economy
Volume17
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

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