Gold and oil futures markets: are markets efficient?

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Abstract

In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3299-3303
Number of pages5
JournalApplied Energy
Volume87
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2010
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Cointegration
  • Gold
  • Inflation
  • Oil
  • Spot and futures markets

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