Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality

A systematic evaluation

Yuming Guo, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Shanshan Li, Benjawan Tawatsupa, Aurelio Tobias, Eric Lavigne, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Michela Leone, Xiaochuan Pan, Shilu Tong, Linwei Tian, Ho Hyun Kim, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Yue Liang Leon Guo, Chang Fu Wu, Kornwipa Punnasiri, Seung Muk Yi, Paola Michelozzi & 2 others Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Gail Williams

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205 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. METHODS: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. RESULTS: The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. CONCLUSIONS: People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution- Non Commercial License, where it is permissible to download, share and reproduce the work in any medium, provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)781-789
Number of pages9
JournalEpidemiology
Volume25
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Externally publishedYes

Cite this

Guo, Yuming ; Gasparrini, Antonio ; Armstrong, Ben ; Li, Shanshan ; Tawatsupa, Benjawan ; Tobias, Aurelio ; Lavigne, Eric ; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline ; Leone, Michela ; Pan, Xiaochuan ; Tong, Shilu ; Tian, Linwei ; Kim, Ho Hyun ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Honda, Yasushi ; Guo, Yue Liang Leon ; Wu, Chang Fu ; Punnasiri, Kornwipa ; Yi, Seung Muk ; Michelozzi, Paola ; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento ; Williams, Gail. / Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : A systematic evaluation. In: Epidemiology. 2014 ; Vol. 25, No. 6. pp. 781-789.
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title = "Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: A systematic evaluation",
abstract = "BACKGROUND: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. METHODS: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. RESULTS: The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. CONCLUSIONS: People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution- Non Commercial License, where it is permissible to download, share and reproduce the work in any medium, provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially.",
author = "Yuming Guo and Antonio Gasparrini and Ben Armstrong and Shanshan Li and Benjawan Tawatsupa and Aurelio Tobias and Eric Lavigne and {de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho}, Micheline and Michela Leone and Xiaochuan Pan and Shilu Tong and Linwei Tian and Kim, {Ho Hyun} and Masahiro Hashizume and Yasushi Honda and Guo, {Yue Liang Leon} and Wu, {Chang Fu} and Kornwipa Punnasiri and Yi, {Seung Muk} and Paola Michelozzi and Saldiva, {Paulo Hilario Nascimento} and Gail Williams",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1097/EDE.0000000000000165",
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Guo, Y, Gasparrini, A, Armstrong, B, Li, S, Tawatsupa, B, Tobias, A, Lavigne, E, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M, Leone, M, Pan, X, Tong, S, Tian, L, Kim, HH, Hashizume, M, Honda, Y, Guo, YLL, Wu, CF, Punnasiri, K, Yi, SM, Michelozzi, P, Saldiva, PHN & Williams, G 2014, 'Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: A systematic evaluation', Epidemiology, vol. 25, no. 6, pp. 781-789. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000165

Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : A systematic evaluation. / Guo, Yuming; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Li, Shanshan; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Leone, Michela; Pan, Xiaochuan; Tong, Shilu; Tian, Linwei; Kim, Ho Hyun; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Liang Leon; Wu, Chang Fu; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Yi, Seung Muk; Michelozzi, Paola; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail.

In: Epidemiology, Vol. 25, No. 6, 2014, p. 781-789.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality

T2 - A systematic evaluation

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Tawatsupa, Benjawan

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline

AU - Leone, Michela

AU - Pan, Xiaochuan

AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - Tian, Linwei

AU - Kim, Ho Hyun

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Guo, Yue Liang Leon

AU - Wu, Chang Fu

AU - Punnasiri, Kornwipa

AU - Yi, Seung Muk

AU - Michelozzi, Paola

AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento

AU - Williams, Gail

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - BACKGROUND: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. METHODS: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. RESULTS: The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. CONCLUSIONS: People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution- Non Commercial License, where it is permissible to download, share and reproduce the work in any medium, provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially.

AB - BACKGROUND: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. METHODS: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. RESULTS: The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. CONCLUSIONS: People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution- Non Commercial License, where it is permissible to download, share and reproduce the work in any medium, provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially.

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U2 - 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000165

DO - 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000165

M3 - Article

VL - 25

SP - 781

EP - 789

JO - Epidemiology

JF - Epidemiology

SN - 1044-3983

IS - 6

ER -