Global population ageing, 1950-2050

Population aging is one of the major inevitable consequences of demographic transition. This chapter examines the trends and patterns of population aging in major regions of the world from 1950 to 2050. The decline in fertility since the 1970s in most regions (except sub-Saharan Africa) led to a decline in the size of successive birth cohorts and the corresponding increase in the proportion of older persons relative to younger ones. The world population aged 65 and older will more than double in the next 30 years. In 2050, about 1.5 billion people worldwide will be 65 years and older. However, population aging will not be uniform across the regions due to differences in the nature and process of fertility and mortality declines. Further, the two population giants China and India will house about 38% of the world’s old-age population in the future. In other words, more than half a billion of world’s older (65+) population will live in these two countries. The future trends in world population will be characterized by a significant increase and thus higher number and share of elderly persons and longer life expectancy. These features imply increase in median age, high and increasing old-age dependency ratios, and old-age population growing at a much faster rate than the total population. Governments, communities, and individuals must take steps to integrate the complex issues on aging into national development planning and develop effective policies which can help mitigate the negative effects while also promoting positive outcomes such as higher economic growth and improved healthcare services.