Global incidence, risk factors, and temporal trends of mesothelioma: a population-based study

Introduction: Mesothelioma is an uncommon type of cancer which has received little attention. This study aims to evaluate the global disease burden; trends of mesothelioma by age, sex, and geographic locations; and its risk factors on the population level. Methods: The Global Cancer Observatory, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus, and Global Burden of Disease were accessed for mesothelioma incidence and its risk factors worldwide. The associations between mesothelioma incidence and asbestos were evaluated for each country by multivariable linear regression analysis by sex and age. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using Joinpoint regression to evaluate the epidemiologic trends of mesothelioma. Results: The age-standardized rate of mesothelioma was 0.30 per 100,000 persons with Northern Europe reporting the highest incidence rates. The incidence rate of the male population was much higher than that of the females. Countries with higher human development index (β = 0.119, confidence interval [CI]: 0.073–0.166, p < 0.001), gross domestic product per capita (β = 0.133, CI: 0.106–0.161, p < 0.001), and asbestos exposure (β = 0.087, CI: 0.073–0.102, p < 0.001) had higher mesothelioma. The overall trend of mesothelioma incidence was decreasing, although an increase was observed in Bulgaria (AAPC: 5.56, 95% CI: 2.94–8.24, p = 0.001) and Korea (AAPC: 3.24, 95% CI: 0.08–6.49, p = 0.045). Conclusions: There was a substantial declining incidence trend of mesothelioma in the past decade possibly related to the restriction of the use of asbestos in some countries. Meanwhile, the increasing trend in mesothelioma incidence observed in females might be indicative of an increase in environmental exposure to mineral fibers.