Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time

Samuel Hundessa; Wenzhong Huang; Qi Zhao; Yao Wu; Bo Wen; Barrak Alahmad; Ben Armstrong; Antonio Gasparrini; Francesco Sera; Shilu Tong; Joana Madureira; Jan Kyselý; Joel Schwartz; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera; Simon Hales; Amanda Johnson; Shanshan Li; Yuming Guo; Jouni J.K. Jaakkola; Niilo Ryti; Aleš Urban; Aurelio Tobias; Dominic Royé; Eric Lavigne; Martina S. Ragettli; Christofer Åström; Raanan Raz; Mathilde Pascal; Haidong Kan; Patrick Goodman; Ariana Zeka; Masahiro Hashizume; Magali Hurtado Diaz; Xerxes Seposo; Baltazar Nunes; Ho Kim; Whanhee Lee; Carmen Íñiguez; Yue Leon Guo; Shih Chun Pan; Antonella Zanobetti; Tran Ngoc Dang; Do Van Dung; Alexandra Schneider; Alireza Entezari; Antonis Analitis; Bertil Forsberg; Caroline Ameling; Danny Houthuijs; Ene Indermitte; Fatemeh Mayvaneh; Fiorella Acquaotta; Francesca de'Donato; Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar; Hans Orru; Klea Katsouyanni; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; Nicolás Valdés Ortega; Noah Scovronick; Paola Michelozzi; Patricia Matus Correa; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva; Rosana Abrutzky; Samuel Osorio; Valentina Colistro; Veronika Huber; Yasushi Honda; Yoonhee Kim; Michelle Bell; Rongbin Xu; Zhengyu Yang; Hematollah Roradeh; Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano; Shilpa Rao; Paul Lester Carlos Chua; Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva; César De la Cruz Valencia; MCC Collaborators

doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425

Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time

Samuel Hundessa, Wenzhong Huang, Qi Zhao, Yao Wu, Bo Wen, Barrak Alahmad, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini, Francesco Sera, Shilu Tong, Joana Madureira, Jan Kyselý, Joel Schwartz, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Simon Hales, Amanda Johnson, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo RytiAleš Urban, Aurelio Tobias, Dominic Royé, Eric Lavigne, Martina S. Ragettli, Christofer Åström, Raanan Raz, Mathilde Pascal, Haidong Kan, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Masahiro Hashizume, Magali Hurtado Diaz, Xerxes Seposo, Baltazar Nunes, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Yue Leon Guo, Shih Chun Pan, Antonella Zanobetti, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Alexandra Schneider, Alireza Entezari, Antonis Analitis, Bertil Forsberg, Caroline Ameling, Danny Houthuijs, Ene Indermitte, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Fiorella Acquaotta, Francesca de'Donato, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Hans Orru, Klea Katsouyanni, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Noah Scovronick, Paola Michelozzi, Patricia Matus Correa, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Rosana Abrutzky, Samuel Osorio, Valentina Colistro, Veronika Huber, Yasushi Honda, Yoonhee Kim, Michelle Bell, Rongbin Xu, Zhengyu Yang, Hematollah Roradeh, Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano, Shilpa Rao, Paul Lester Carlos Chua, Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva, César De la Cruz Valencia, MCC Collaborators

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

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Abstract

Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature–mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. Results: Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. Conclusions: Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2276-2287
Number of pages	12
Journal	Journal of the American College of Cardiology
Volume	83
Issue number	23
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425
Publication status	Published - 11 Jun 2024

Keywords

cardiovascular death
death ratio
excess death
Global Burden of Disease
nonoptimal temperatures

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425

Cite this

Hundessa, S., Huang, W., Zhao, Q., Wu, Y., Wen, B., Alahmad, B., Armstrong, B., Gasparrini, A., Sera, F., Tong, S., Madureira, J., Kyselý, J., Schwartz, J., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Hales, S., Johnson, A., Li, S., Guo, Y., Jaakkola, J. J. K., ... MCC Collaborators (2024). Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 83(23), 2276-2287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425

@article{439de782c01045369147908b3eeb3faa,

title = "Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time",

abstract = "Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature–mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. Results: Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. Conclusions: Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change.",

keywords = "cardiovascular death, death ratio, excess death, Global Burden of Disease, nonoptimal temperatures",

author = "Samuel Hundessa and Wenzhong Huang and Qi Zhao and Yao Wu and Bo Wen and Barrak Alahmad and Ben Armstrong and Antonio Gasparrini and Francesco Sera and Shilu Tong and Joana Madureira and Jan Kysel{\'y} and Joel Schwartz and Vicedo-Cabrera, {Ana Maria} and Simon Hales and Amanda Johnson and Shanshan Li and Yuming Guo and Jaakkola, {Jouni J.K.} and Niilo Ryti and Ale{\v s} Urban and Aurelio Tobias and Dominic Roy{\'e} and Eric Lavigne and Ragettli, {Martina S.} and Christofer {\AA}str{\"o}m and Raanan Raz and Mathilde Pascal and Haidong Kan and Patrick Goodman and Ariana Zeka and Masahiro Hashizume and Diaz, {Magali Hurtado} and Xerxes Seposo and Baltazar Nunes and Ho Kim and Whanhee Lee and Carmen {\'I}{\~n}iguez and Guo, {Yue Leon} and Pan, {Shih Chun} and Antonella Zanobetti and Dang, {Tran Ngoc} and {Van Dung}, Do and Alexandra Schneider and Alireza Entezari and Antonis Analitis and Bertil Forsberg and Caroline Ameling and Danny Houthuijs and Ene Indermitte and Fatemeh Mayvaneh and Fiorella Acquaotta and Francesca de'Donato and Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar and Hans Orru and Klea Katsouyanni and {de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho}, Micheline and Ortega, {Nicol{\'a}s Vald{\'e}s} and Noah Scovronick and Paola Michelozzi and Correa, {Patricia Matus} and {Nascimento Saldiva}, {Paulo Hilario} and Rosana Abrutzky and Samuel Osorio and Valentina Colistro and Veronika Huber and Yasushi Honda and Yoonhee Kim and Michelle Bell and Rongbin Xu and Zhengyu Yang and Hematollah Roradeh and {F{\'e}lix Arellano}, {Eunice Elizabeth} and Shilpa Rao and {Carlos Chua}, {Paul Lester} and {da Silva}, {Susana das Neves Pereira} and {De la Cruz Valencia}, C{\'e}sar and {MCC Collaborators}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 American College of Cardiology Foundation",

year = "2024",

month = jun,

day = "11",

doi = "10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425",

language = "English",

volume = "83",

pages = "2276--2287",

journal = "Journal of the American College of Cardiology",

issn = "0735-1097",

publisher = "Elsevier",

number = "23",

}

Hundessa, S, Huang, W, Zhao, Q, Wu, Y , Wen, B, Alahmad, B, Armstrong, B, Gasparrini, A, Sera, F, Tong, S, Madureira, J, Kyselý, J, Schwartz, J, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Hales, S, Johnson, A, Li, S , Guo, Y, Jaakkola, JJK, Ryti, N, Urban, A, Tobias, A, Royé, D, Lavigne, E, Ragettli, MS, Åström, C, Raz, R, Pascal, M, Kan, H, Goodman, P, Zeka, A, Hashizume, M, Diaz, MH, Seposo, X, Nunes, B, Kim, H, Lee, W, Íñiguez, C, Guo, YL, Pan, SC, Zanobetti, A, Dang, TN, Van Dung, D, Schneider, A, Entezari, A, Analitis, A, Forsberg, B, Ameling, C, Houthuijs, D, Indermitte, E, Mayvaneh, F, Acquaotta, F, de'Donato, F, Carrasco-Escobar, G, Orru, H, Katsouyanni, K, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M, Ortega, NV, Scovronick, N, Michelozzi, P, Correa, PM, Nascimento Saldiva, PH, Abrutzky, R, Osorio, S, Colistro, V, Huber, V, Honda, Y, Kim, Y, Bell, M, Xu, R, Yang, Z, Roradeh, H, Félix Arellano, EE, Rao, S, Carlos Chua, PL, da Silva, SDNP, De la Cruz Valencia, C & MCC Collaborators 2024, 'Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time', Journal of the American College of Cardiology, vol. 83, no. 23, pp. 2276-2287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time

AU - Hundessa, Samuel

AU - Huang, Wenzhong

AU - Zhao, Qi

AU - Wu, Yao

AU - Wen, Bo

AU - Alahmad, Barrak

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - Madureira, Joana

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Schwartz, Joel

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria

AU - Hales, Simon

AU - Johnson, Amanda

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.

AU - Ryti, Niilo

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Royé, Dominic

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Ragettli, Martina S.

AU - Åström, Christofer

AU - Raz, Raanan

AU - Pascal, Mathilde

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Goodman, Patrick

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Diaz, Magali Hurtado

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - Nunes, Baltazar

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Lee, Whanhee

AU - Íñiguez, Carmen

AU - Guo, Yue Leon

AU - Pan, Shih Chun

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Van Dung, Do

AU - Schneider, Alexandra

AU - Entezari, Alireza

AU - Analitis, Antonis

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Ameling, Caroline

AU - Houthuijs, Danny

AU - Indermitte, Ene

AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

AU - Acquaotta, Fiorella

AU - de'Donato, Francesca

AU - Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel

AU - Orru, Hans

AU - Katsouyanni, Klea

AU - de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline

AU - Ortega, Nicolás Valdés

AU - Scovronick, Noah

AU - Michelozzi, Paola

AU - Correa, Patricia Matus

AU - Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario

AU - Abrutzky, Rosana

AU - Osorio, Samuel

AU - Colistro, Valentina

AU - Huber, Veronika

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Kim, Yoonhee

AU - Bell, Michelle

AU - Xu, Rongbin

AU - Yang, Zhengyu

AU - Roradeh, Hematollah

AU - Félix Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth

AU - Rao, Shilpa

AU - Carlos Chua, Paul Lester

AU - da Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira

AU - De la Cruz Valencia, César

AU - MCC Collaborators

PY - 2024/6/11

Y1 - 2024/6/11

N2 - Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature–mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. Results: Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. Conclusions: Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change.

AB - Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature–mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. Results: Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. Conclusions: Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change.

KW - cardiovascular death

KW - death ratio

KW - excess death

KW - Global Burden of Disease

KW - nonoptimal temperatures

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85194106563&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425

DO - 10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425

M3 - Article

C2 - 38839202

AN - SCOPUS:85194106563

SN - 0735-1097

VL - 83

SP - 2276

EP - 2287

JO - Journal of the American College of Cardiology

JF - Journal of the American College of Cardiology

IS - 23

ER -

Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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New Knowledge and Research Capacity for Health Impacts of Global Environmental Change with Big Data, Novel Approach and New Technology

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Cite this

Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Projects

New Knowledge and Research Capacity for Health Impacts of Global Environmental Change with Big Data, Novel Approach and New Technology

Multi-Country Study on Health Effects of Bushfire Air Pollution

Climate Change and Human Health in Asia: Current Impacts, Future Risks, and Health Benefits of Mitigation Policies

Cite this