Genomic Risk Score for Melanoma in a Prospective Study of Older Individuals

Andrew Bakshi, Mabel Yan, Moeen Riaz, Galina Polekhina, Suzanne G. Orchard, Jane Tiller, Rory Wolfe, Amit Joshi, Yin Cao, Aideen M. McInerney-Leo, Tatiane Yanes, Monika Janda, H. Peter Soyer, Anne E. Cust, Matthew H. Law, Peter Gibbs, Catriona McLean, Andrew T. Chan, John J. McNeil, Victoria J. MarPaul Lacaze

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)


Background: Recent genome-wide association meta-analysis for melanoma doubled the number of previously identified variants. We assessed the performance of an updated polygenic risk score (PRS) in a population of older individuals, where melanoma incidence and cumulative ultraviolet radiation exposure is greatest. Methods: We assessed a PRS for cutaneous melanoma comprising 55 variants in a prospective study of 12 712 individuals in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly Trial. We evaluated incident melanomas diagnosed during the trial and prevalent melanomas diagnosed preenrolment (self-reported). Multivariable models examined associations between PRS as a continuous variable (per SD) and categorical (low-risk [0%-20%], medium-risk [21%-80%], high-risk [81%-100%] groups) with incident melanoma. Logistic regression examined the association between PRS and prevalent melanoma. Results: At baseline, mean participant age was 75 years; 55.0% were female, and 528 (4.2%) had prevalent melanomas. During follow-up (median = 4.7 years), 120 (1.0%) incident cutaneous melanomas occurred, 98 of which were in participants with no history. PRS was associated with incident melanoma (hazard ratio = 1.46 per SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 to 1.77) and prevalent melanoma (odds ratio [OR] = 1.55 per SD, 95% CI = 1.42 to 1.69). Participants in the highest-risk PRS group had increased risk compared with the low-risk group for incident melanoma (OR = 2.51, 95% CI = 1.28 to 4.92) and prevalent melanoma (OR = 3.66, 95% CI = 2.69 to 5.05). When stratifying by sex, only males had an association between the PRS and incident melanoma, whereas both sexes had an association between the PRS and prevalent melanoma. Conclusions: A genomic risk score is associated with melanoma risk in older individuals and may contribute to targeted surveillance.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1379-1385
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of the National Cancer Institute
Issue number10
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2021

Cite this