Future burden of cardiovascular disease in Australia: impact on health and economic outcomes between 2020 and 2029

Clara Marquina, Stella Talic, Sandra Vargas Torres, Mariana Petrova, Dina Abushanab, Alice Owen, Sean Lybrand, David Thomson, Danny Liew, Ella Zomer, Zanfina Ademi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Aims
To estimate the health and economic burden of new and established cardiovascular disease from 2020 to 2029 in Australia.

Methods and results
A two-stage multistate dynamic model was developed to predict the burden of the incident and prevalent cardiovascular disease, for Australians 40–90 years old from 2020 to 2029. The model captured morbidity, mortality, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years, healthcare costs, and productivity losses. Cardiovascular risk for the primary prevention population was derived using Australian demographic data and the Pooled Cohort Equation. Risk for the secondary prevention population was derived from the REACH registry. Input data for costs and utilities were extracted from published sources. All outcomes were annually discounted by 5%. A number of sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of the study. Between 2020 and 2029, the model estimates 377 754 fatal and 991 375 non-fatal cardiovascular events. By 2029, 1 061 756 Australians will have prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD). The population accrued 8 815 271 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 8 805 083–8 841 432] years of life lived with CVD and 5 876 975 (5 551 484–6 226 045) QALYs. The total healthcare costs of CVD were projected to exceed Australian dollars (AUD) 61.89 (61.79–88.66) billion, and productivity losses will account for AUD 78.75 (49.40–295.25) billion, driving the total cost to surpass AUD 140.65 (123.13–370.23) billion.

Conclusion
Cardiovascular disease in Australia has substantial impacts in terms of morbidity, mortality, and lost revenue to the healthcare system and the society. Our modelling provides important information for decision making in relation to the future burden of cardiovascular disease.
Original languageEnglish
Article numberzwab001
Number of pages8
JournalEuropean Journal of Preventive Cardiology
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 4 Mar 2021

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