Forecasting high proportions of wind energy supplying the Brazilian Northeast electricity grid

Pieter de Jong, Roger Dargaville, Jeremy Silver, Steven Utembe, Asher Kiperstok, Ednildo Andrade Torres

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This study examines the optimal integration of high proportions of wind energy into an electricity grid which traditionally depends on hydroelectricity. Wind power in the Brazilian Northeast (NE) is expected to generate 57% of the NE's electricity supply by 2020. As rainfall in the NE region is susceptible to climate change, it is anticipated that wind energy could substitute lost hydroelectric availability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to simulate wind speeds for all of 2014 and calculate wind power across the entire NE region of Brazil. The NE region's aggregate hourly wind generation and net load curve are then estimated for increasing wind penetrations using the planned rollout of wind farms in the region as a baseline. The maximum wind energy penetration in the region is estimated to be approximately 50% before significant amounts of energy would need to be curtailed or exported to other Brazilian regions. It was found that wind energy generation from coastal wind farms in the region best correlates with the hourly and monthly variations of the NE subsystem's load curve. Conversely, inland wind farms on the NE's elevated plateaus typically generate more power late at night, but have higher capacity factors.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)538-555
Number of pages18
JournalApplied Energy
Volume195
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Hydroelectricity
  • Renewable energy integration
  • Solar power
  • Wind power
  • WRF

Cite this

de Jong, Pieter ; Dargaville, Roger ; Silver, Jeremy ; Utembe, Steven ; Kiperstok, Asher ; Torres, Ednildo Andrade. / Forecasting high proportions of wind energy supplying the Brazilian Northeast electricity grid. In: Applied Energy. 2017 ; Vol. 195. pp. 538-555.
@article{9a6ce1cd1de0497eae1f07c9806586aa,
title = "Forecasting high proportions of wind energy supplying the Brazilian Northeast electricity grid",
abstract = "This study examines the optimal integration of high proportions of wind energy into an electricity grid which traditionally depends on hydroelectricity. Wind power in the Brazilian Northeast (NE) is expected to generate 57{\%} of the NE's electricity supply by 2020. As rainfall in the NE region is susceptible to climate change, it is anticipated that wind energy could substitute lost hydroelectric availability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to simulate wind speeds for all of 2014 and calculate wind power across the entire NE region of Brazil. The NE region's aggregate hourly wind generation and net load curve are then estimated for increasing wind penetrations using the planned rollout of wind farms in the region as a baseline. The maximum wind energy penetration in the region is estimated to be approximately 50{\%} before significant amounts of energy would need to be curtailed or exported to other Brazilian regions. It was found that wind energy generation from coastal wind farms in the region best correlates with the hourly and monthly variations of the NE subsystem's load curve. Conversely, inland wind farms on the NE's elevated plateaus typically generate more power late at night, but have higher capacity factors.",
keywords = "Forecasting, Hydroelectricity, Renewable energy integration, Solar power, Wind power, WRF",
author = "{de Jong}, Pieter and Roger Dargaville and Jeremy Silver and Steven Utembe and Asher Kiperstok and Torres, {Ednildo Andrade}",
year = "2017",
doi = "10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.058",
language = "English",
volume = "195",
pages = "538--555",
journal = "Applied Energy",
issn = "0306-2619",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Forecasting high proportions of wind energy supplying the Brazilian Northeast electricity grid. / de Jong, Pieter; Dargaville, Roger; Silver, Jeremy ; Utembe, Steven; Kiperstok, Asher; Torres, Ednildo Andrade.

In: Applied Energy, Vol. 195, 2017, p. 538-555.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasting high proportions of wind energy supplying the Brazilian Northeast electricity grid

AU - de Jong, Pieter

AU - Dargaville, Roger

AU - Silver, Jeremy

AU - Utembe, Steven

AU - Kiperstok, Asher

AU - Torres, Ednildo Andrade

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - This study examines the optimal integration of high proportions of wind energy into an electricity grid which traditionally depends on hydroelectricity. Wind power in the Brazilian Northeast (NE) is expected to generate 57% of the NE's electricity supply by 2020. As rainfall in the NE region is susceptible to climate change, it is anticipated that wind energy could substitute lost hydroelectric availability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to simulate wind speeds for all of 2014 and calculate wind power across the entire NE region of Brazil. The NE region's aggregate hourly wind generation and net load curve are then estimated for increasing wind penetrations using the planned rollout of wind farms in the region as a baseline. The maximum wind energy penetration in the region is estimated to be approximately 50% before significant amounts of energy would need to be curtailed or exported to other Brazilian regions. It was found that wind energy generation from coastal wind farms in the region best correlates with the hourly and monthly variations of the NE subsystem's load curve. Conversely, inland wind farms on the NE's elevated plateaus typically generate more power late at night, but have higher capacity factors.

AB - This study examines the optimal integration of high proportions of wind energy into an electricity grid which traditionally depends on hydroelectricity. Wind power in the Brazilian Northeast (NE) is expected to generate 57% of the NE's electricity supply by 2020. As rainfall in the NE region is susceptible to climate change, it is anticipated that wind energy could substitute lost hydroelectric availability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to simulate wind speeds for all of 2014 and calculate wind power across the entire NE region of Brazil. The NE region's aggregate hourly wind generation and net load curve are then estimated for increasing wind penetrations using the planned rollout of wind farms in the region as a baseline. The maximum wind energy penetration in the region is estimated to be approximately 50% before significant amounts of energy would need to be curtailed or exported to other Brazilian regions. It was found that wind energy generation from coastal wind farms in the region best correlates with the hourly and monthly variations of the NE subsystem's load curve. Conversely, inland wind farms on the NE's elevated plateaus typically generate more power late at night, but have higher capacity factors.

KW - Forecasting

KW - Hydroelectricity

KW - Renewable energy integration

KW - Solar power

KW - Wind power

KW - WRF

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85016030813&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.058

DO - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.058

M3 - Article

VL - 195

SP - 538

EP - 555

JO - Applied Energy

JF - Applied Energy

SN - 0306-2619

ER -