Flexible Growth Scenarios in Melbourne: Impacts and opportunities of diversified dwelling supply

In recent decades, Melbourne’s real population growth outstripped statistical projections, while land-value development models produced uneven distributions of housing supply and dwelling types. Despite adverse social and environmental impacts, pressure for new affordable supply saw the status quo largely maintained; large-scale, high-density development in inner areas, low-density expansion on the urban fringe and uncoordinated small-scale infill across established suburbs.

Today, COVID-19 has stopped Melbourne’s growth in its tracks, casting uncertainty over the viability and timing of future housing delivery. The cost and complexity of large-scale development (inner or fringe) is particularly susceptible, pointing to the potential advantages of smaller-scale, more flexible infill.

This paper presents a series of speculative growth scenarios in Melbourne that premise medium-density design models in response to short- and long-term housing needs. The outcomes visualise alternative settlement patterns and indicate potential policy formation for enhancing the quality, sustainability and equity of Melbourne’s suburbs.