Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Angeline G. Pendergrass; Gerald A. Meehl; Roger Pulwarty; Mike Hobbins; Andrew Hoell; Amir AghaKouchak; Céline J.W. Bonfils; Ailie J.E. Gallant; Martin Hoerling; David Hoffmann; Laurna Kaatz; Flavio Lehner; Dagmar Llewellyn; Philip Mote; Richard B. Neale; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Amanda Sheffield; Kerstin Stahl; Mark Svoboda; Matthew C. Wheeler; Andrew W. Wood; Connie A. Woodhouse

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Angeline G. Pendergrass, Gerald A. Meehl, Roger Pulwarty, Mike Hobbins, Andrew Hoell, Amir AghaKouchak, Céline J.W. Bonfils, Ailie J.E. Gallant, Martin Hoerling, David Hoffmann, Laurna Kaatz, Flavio Lehner, Dagmar Llewellyn, Philip Mote, Richard B. Neale, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Amanda Sheffield, Kerstin Stahl, Mark Svoboda, Matthew C. WheelerAndrew W. Wood, Connie A. Woodhouse

School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review Article › Research › peer-review

256 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	191-199
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	10
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0
Publication status	Published - 1 Mar 2020

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10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

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Pendergrass, A. G., Meehl, G. A., Pulwarty, R., Hobbins, M., Hoell, A., AghaKouchak, A., Bonfils, C. J. W., Gallant, A. J. E., Hoerling, M., Hoffmann, D., Kaatz, L., Lehner, F., Llewellyn, D., Mote, P., Neale, R. B., Overpeck, J. T., Sheffield, A., Stahl, K., Svoboda, M., ... Woodhouse, C. A. (2020). Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Nature Climate Change, 10(3), 191-199. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

@article{cad870a27cc243bea1050ab7ca0761ec,

title = "Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction",

abstract = "Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.",

author = "Pendergrass, {Angeline G.} and Meehl, {Gerald A.} and Roger Pulwarty and Mike Hobbins and Andrew Hoell and Amir AghaKouchak and Bonfils, {C{\'e}line J.W.} and Gallant, {Ailie J.E.} and Martin Hoerling and David Hoffmann and Laurna Kaatz and Flavio Lehner and Dagmar Llewellyn and Philip Mote and Neale, {Richard B.} and Overpeck, {Jonathan T.} and Amanda Sheffield and Kerstin Stahl and Mark Svoboda and Wheeler, {Matthew C.} and Wood, {Andrew W.} and Woodhouse, {Connie A.}",

year = "2020",

month = mar,

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doi = "10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0",

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Pendergrass, AG, Meehl, GA, Pulwarty, R, Hobbins, M, Hoell, A, AghaKouchak, A, Bonfils, CJW, Gallant, AJE, Hoerling, M, Hoffmann, D, Kaatz, L, Lehner, F, Llewellyn, D, Mote, P, Neale, RB, Overpeck, JT, Sheffield, A, Stahl, K, Svoboda, M, Wheeler, MC, Wood, AW & Woodhouse, CA 2020, 'Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction', Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 191-199. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

TY - JOUR

T1 - Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

AU - Pendergrass, Angeline G.

AU - Meehl, Gerald A.

AU - Pulwarty, Roger

AU - Hobbins, Mike

AU - Hoell, Andrew

AU - AghaKouchak, Amir

AU - Bonfils, Céline J.W.

AU - Gallant, Ailie J.E.

AU - Hoerling, Martin

AU - Hoffmann, David

AU - Kaatz, Laurna

AU - Lehner, Flavio

AU - Llewellyn, Dagmar

AU - Mote, Philip

AU - Neale, Richard B.

AU - Overpeck, Jonathan T.

AU - Sheffield, Amanda

AU - Stahl, Kerstin

AU - Svoboda, Mark

AU - Wheeler, Matthew C.

AU - Wood, Andrew W.

AU - Woodhouse, Connie A.

PY - 2020/3/1

Y1 - 2020/3/1

N2 - Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

AB - Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

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SN - 1758-678X

VL - 10

SP - 191

EP - 199

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 3

ER -

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Abstract

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