Fine-grained prediction and control of Covid-19 pandemic in a city: Application to post-initial stages

Souvik Barat; Vinay Kulkarni; Aditya Paranjape; Ritu Parchure; Srinivas Darak; Vinay Kulkarni

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-21203-1_19

Fine-grained prediction and control of Covid-19 pandemic in a city: Application to post-initial stages

Souvik Barat, Vinay Kulkarni, Aditya Paranjape, Ritu Parchure, Srinivas Darak, Vinay Kulkarni

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Paper › Other

Abstract

Predicting the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic during its early phases was relatively easy as its dynamics were governed by few influencing factors that included a single dominant virus variant and the demographic characteristics of a given area. Several models based on a wide variety of techniques were developed for this purpose. Their prediction accuracy started deteriorating as the number of influencing factors and their interrelationships grew over time. With the pandemic evolving in a highly heterogeneous way across individual countries, states, and even individual cities, there emerged a need for a contextual and fine-grained understanding of the pandemic to come up with effective means of pandemic control. This paper presents a fine-grained model for predicting and controlling Covid-19 in a large city. Our approach borrows ideas from complex adaptive system-of-systems paradigm and adopts a concept of agent as the core modeling abstraction.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	PRIMA 2022
Subtitle of host publication	Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems - 24th International Conference, Proceedings
Editors	Reyhan Aydoğan, Natalia Criado, Victor Sanchez-Anguix, Jérôme Lang, Marc Serramia
Publisher	Springer
Pages	314-330
Number of pages	17
ISBN (Print)	9783031212024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21203-1_19
Publication status	Published - 2023
Externally published	Yes
Event	International Conference on Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems 2020 - Valencia , Spain Duration: 16 Nov 2022 → 18 Nov 2022 Conference number: 24th https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-21203-1 (Proceedings) https://uchiya.web.nitech.ac.jp/prima2020/ (Website)

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Publisher	Springer
Volume	13753
ISSN (Print)	0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)	1611-3349

Conference

Conference	International Conference on Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems 2020
Abbreviated title	PRIMA 2020
Country/Territory	Spain
City	Valencia
Period	16/11/22 → 18/11/22
Internet address	https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-21203-1 (Proceedings) https://uchiya.web.nitech.ac.jp/prima2020/ (Website)

Keywords

Agent model
Complex system
Covid-19 modeling
Digital twin
Simulatable model

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-031-21203-1_19

Cite this

Barat, S., Kulkarni, V., Paranjape, A., Parchure, R., Darak, S., & Kulkarni, V. (2023). Fine-grained prediction and control of Covid-19 pandemic in a city: Application to post-initial stages. In R. Aydoğan, N. Criado, V. Sanchez-Anguix, J. Lang, & M. Serramia (Eds.), PRIMA 2022: Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems - 24th International Conference, Proceedings (pp. 314-330). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 13753). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21203-1_19

Barat, Souvik ; Kulkarni, Vinay ; Paranjape, Aditya et al. / Fine-grained prediction and control of Covid-19 pandemic in a city : Application to post-initial stages. PRIMA 2022: Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems - 24th International Conference, Proceedings. editor / Reyhan Aydoğan ; Natalia Criado ; Victor Sanchez-Anguix ; Jérôme Lang ; Marc Serramia. Springer, 2023. pp. 314-330 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science).

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abstract = "Predicting the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic during its early phases was relatively easy as its dynamics were governed by few influencing factors that included a single dominant virus variant and the demographic characteristics of a given area. Several models based on a wide variety of techniques were developed for this purpose. Their prediction accuracy started deteriorating as the number of influencing factors and their interrelationships grew over time. With the pandemic evolving in a highly heterogeneous way across individual countries, states, and even individual cities, there emerged a need for a contextual and fine-grained understanding of the pandemic to come up with effective means of pandemic control. This paper presents a fine-grained model for predicting and controlling Covid-19 in a large city. Our approach borrows ideas from complex adaptive system-of-systems paradigm and adopts a concept of agent as the core modeling abstraction.",

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Barat, S, Kulkarni, V, Paranjape, A, Parchure, R, Darak, S & Kulkarni, V 2023, Fine-grained prediction and control of Covid-19 pandemic in a city: Application to post-initial stages. in R Aydoğan, N Criado, V Sanchez-Anguix, J Lang & M Serramia (eds), PRIMA 2022: Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems - 24th International Conference, Proceedings. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 13753, Springer, pp. 314-330, International Conference on Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems 2020, Valencia , Spain, 16/11/22. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21203-1_19

Fine-grained prediction and control of Covid-19 pandemic in a city: Application to post-initial stages. / Barat, Souvik; Kulkarni, Vinay; Paranjape, Aditya et al.
PRIMA 2022: Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems - 24th International Conference, Proceedings. ed. / Reyhan Aydoğan; Natalia Criado; Victor Sanchez-Anguix; Jérôme Lang; Marc Serramia. Springer, 2023. p. 314-330 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 13753).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Paper › Other

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Barat S, Kulkarni V, Paranjape A, Parchure R, Darak S, Kulkarni V. Fine-grained prediction and control of Covid-19 pandemic in a city: Application to post-initial stages. In Aydoğan R, Criado N, Sanchez-Anguix V, Lang J, Serramia M, editors, PRIMA 2022: Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems - 24th International Conference, Proceedings. Springer. 2023. p. 314-330. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-21203-1_19